Croatia Defence and Security Report Q4 2009

Executive Summary ......................5
SWOT Analysis..............................6
Croatia Security SWOT.............. 6
Croatia Defence Industry SWOT ........................................................ 6
Croatia Political SWOT............. 7
Croatia Economic SWOT........... 7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT ................................................ 8
Political Overview..........................9
Security Risk Analysis................11
BMI’s Security Ratings ............ 11
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ................................. 11
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index.......................... 12
Croatia’s Security Risk Ratings ........................................................ 13
City Terrorism Rating.............. 14
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index .................................. 14
Europe Regional Security Overview ...................................................16
Security Overview .......................23
Internal Threats ....................... 23
Small Arms And Light Weapons Proliferation .................................. 23
External Security Situation ...... 23
Armed Forces And Government Spending ........................................25
Armed Forces .......................... 25
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, ‘000) .......................................................... 25
International Deployments And Joint Exercises................................ 27
Table: Croatia’s Deployments .......................................................... 27
Weapons Of Mass Destruction.......................................................... 28
Market Overview..........................29
Recent Changes ....................... 29
Arms Trade Overview.............. 30
Industry Trends And Developments .................................................. 31
Procurement Trends And Developments........................................... 31
Competitive Landscape............ 32
Table: Key Players In Croatia’s Defence Sector .............................. 32
Industry Forecast Scenario .........33
Table: Croatia’s Armed Forces, 2005-2012 (‘000) .......................... 33
Table: Croatia’s Defence Expenditure, 2005-2012........................... 34
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario............................................. 35
Macroeconomic Outlook.......... 36
Table: Croatia – Economic Activity, 2006-2013............................... 38
Company Profiles........................39
Duro Dakovic .......................... 39
Riz Transmitters....................... 40
Elmech Razvoj ......................... 41
Kraljevica Shipyard ................. 42
Raytheon.................................. 43
Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data .................................44
Section 1: Population............... 44
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030..................................... 44
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................................... 45
Section 2: Education And Healthcare............................................... 45
Table: Education, 2000-2003 ........................................................... 45
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030..................................................... 45
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................... 46
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004....................................... 46
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) ............................. 47
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010....................................... 47
BMI Methodology ........................48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ....................................... 48
Defence Industry...................... 48
City Terrorism Rating.............. 49
Table: Methodology................. 51
Sources ......................................... 52