France Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ..................................5
France Security SWOT ............... 6
France Defence Industry SWOT ................................... 6
France Political SWOT............... 7
France Economic SWOT............. 7
Political Overview....8
Security Risk Analysis............................11
Security Ratings ............................. 11
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ........... 11
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index.... 12
Regional Security: Europe............. 13
Overview................................... 13
International Terrorism............ 14
Criminal Activities .................... 16
France – Security Risk Ratings ................................... 16
France – Conflict Risk .............. 16
France – Terrorism Risk........... 17
France – Physical Safety Risk..................................... 17
Security Overview ...................................19
Internal Security Situation ............. 19
Latest Developments ................. 21
Timeline: Internal Threats ....... 23
External Security Situation ............ 24
Latest Developments ................. 26
External Security: Recent Developments .................... 28
Armed Forces And Defence Industry.....29
Armed Forces ........................... 29
Table: Regional Armed Forces (Including Conscripted) 2007 ...................... 29
Current Strength ....................... 32
International Deployments........ 33
Table: Principal Deployments of the French Armed Forces:........................ 33
Co-ordination And Joint Operations........................... 34
Table: Selected Training Events/Exercises In Which France Took Part In 2004............................. 35
Weapons Of Mass Destruction.................................... 36
Market Structure....38
Industry Trends And Developments ............................ 38
Background............................... 39
Latest Developments ................. 41
Timeline: Defence And Procurement ......................... 42
Arms Trade Overview .................... 43
Exports...................................... 43
Imports...................................... 43
Table: France – Key Players ...................................... 45
Procurement Background ......... 46
Industry Forecast Scenario....................47
Army Numbers .......................... 47
Table: Army Numbers............... 47
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry........... 48
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry ................................. 48
Macroeconomic Forecast ........................50
Table: France - Economic Activity ............................. 54
Company Profiles....................................55
Dassault Aviation...................... 55
DCNS...... 57
Thales ....................................... 58
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data .......................60
Section 1: Population................ 60
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............... 60
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .............. 61
Section 2: Education And Healthcare......................... 61
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..................................... 61
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030............................... 61
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ......... 62
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005................. 62
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 62
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012................. 63
BMI Forecast Modelling ..........................64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................. 64
Defence Industry....................... 64
Sources ........ 65