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Future of the Danish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

Denmark defence market: Expenditure to decline over -9% CAGR between 2013-2018

Expenditure in the Denmark defence market, which registered a CAGR of 0.52% during the review period, is expected to decline at a CAGR of -9.16% over the forecast period. Danish military spending is estimated to decline from US$4.1 billion in 2013 to US$2.8 billion by 2018.

During the review period, Denmark's ministry of defense (MoD) allocated an average of 72.3% of its total defense budget to revenue expenditure, and the remaining 27.7% to capital expenses. However, the country's capital expenditure share is expected to average 27.8% over the forecast period as a result of increasing investment in equipment while the country modernizes its armed forces. The share of revenue expenditure is, therefore, expected to decline to 72.2% of the overall defense expenditure.

Primarily driven by capability building and participation in NATO and UN operations, the country's defense expenditure is expected to focus more on the procurement of equipment for its maritime security, cyber security, missile defense, and counterterrorism capabilities over the period 2014-2018. The country's defense imports and exports are expected to increase marginally over the forecast period.

Denmark's defense priorities focus on enhancing the capabilities of its armed forces to deploy force contributions at short notice for safeguarding Danish interests at home and abroad, and for participation in NATO's operations and UN peacekeeping operations. These factors are expected to drive the country's military expenditure over the forecast period.

Denmark has a small defence budget when compared to other European countries such as the UK, Germany, and France, and is likely to register negative growth over the forecast period. As the Danish government allocates a small proportion of its budget to defence, the country spends less on the purchase of equipment and high-technology arms and ammunition. Moreover, the country spends less on advanced technology and research and development, resulting in lower export capacities. Consequently, the country's low defence budget has become a barrier to entry for foreign companies. As Denmark's defence industry comprises small companies with little specialization in a particular weapon category, and due to a lack of advanced defence technology, foreign weapon suppliers wishing to conduct business face challenges in infrastructure. Although these foreign suppliers can bring in advanced technology, this will result in technology imports without any offset incentives. Foreign suppliers face challenges on these fronts while pursuing a defence business opportunity.

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