Germany Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ..................................5
SWOT Analysis........7
Germany Security SWOT ............ 7
Germany Defence SWOT ............ 8
Germany Political SWOT ........... 8
Germany Economic SWOT ......... 9
Political Overview....................................10
Security Risk Analysis............................13
BMI’s Security Ratings ............. 13
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ........... 13
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index.... 14
Regional Security: Europe ......................15
Overview................................... 15
Internal Terrorism.................... 15
Criminal Activities .................... 18
Germany – Security Risk Ratings...........19
Germany – Conflict Risk........... 19
Germany – Terrorism Risk........ 19
Germany – Physical Safety Risk ................................. 20
Security Overview ...................................21
Domestic Terrorism.................. 21
Latest Developments ................. 21
Timeline: Internal Threats ....... 22
External Security Situation .....................24
International Terrorism............ 24
Latest Developments ................. 25
Timeline: External Threats ...... 27
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............................29
Armed Forces ........................... 29
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (‘000, including conscripted) ............. 29
Defence Posture........................ 29
Defence Reform ........................ 30
Conscription ............................. 31
Constraints On Defence Capabilities.......................... 32
International Deployments........ 33
Table: Germany International Deployments............... 33
Co-ordination And Joint Operations........................... 34
Weapons Of Mass Destruction.................................... 35
Market Overview....36
Arms Trade Overview .............................36
Exports...................................... 36
Imports...................................... 38
Industry Trends And Developments ......38
Background............................... 38
Procurement Background ......... 40
Table: Key Players – Germany Defence Industry ....... 42
Latest Developments ................. 42
Timeline: Defence And Procurement ......................... 43
Industry Forecast Scenario....................45
Army Enlargements................... 45
Table: Army Enlargements, 2005-2013 (‘000s) .......... 45
Army ....... 45
Air Force (Luftwaffe) ................ 45
Navy........ 46
Defence Expenditure................. 46
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2005-2013 ............... 46
Macroeconomic Forecast ......... 47
Table: Germany – Macroeconomic Forecasts ............ 49
Company Profiles....................................50
EADS ...... 50
Rheinmetall Group.................... 52
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann .......... 55
RUAG Aerospace Deutschland................................... 57
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data ...................59
Section 1: Population................ 59
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............... 59
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .............. 60
Section 2: Education And Healthcare......................... 60
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..................................... 60
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030............................... 60
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ......... 61
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006................. 61
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 62
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages ........... 63
BMI Forecast Modelling ..........................64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................. 64
Defence Industry....................... 64
Sources ..................65