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The eurozone debt crisis has continued to roll on, posing a major challenge for the German government. While domestically any move to provide a decisive but enormously expensive bailout package would prove highly controversial, the failure to resolve the issue is beginning to impact not only Greece, Ireland and other troubled countries but the global economy as a whole. German growth forecasts are being revised down to reflect the economic troubles as exports to other European states are taking a battering. This is not, however, having a noticeable effect on German defence spending or policy. The long-planned drawdown in German force levels is continuing with the end of conscription while plans to increase the ability to deploy overseas are also progressing. That said, Germany refrained from contributing troops to recent NATO-led operations in Libya.
The countrys defence industry is in a period of change, however, as the German government is understood to be preparing to purchase a 7.5% stake in the European defence conglomerate EADS. Private company Daimler is trying to sell a third of its 22.5% stake but has been unable to find a German buyer for the stake, with the attempted sale to a private firm described as hopeless by a senior official. The German government is insistent that the sale be to a German entity, as it is wary of letting French interests dominate at the firm with the potential loss of work orders. A federal development bank is the most likely to make the purchase.
Naval firm Blohm + Voss may be sold to a German company after all, after Lurssen Werft reportedly made a bid for the firm. Owner ThyssenKrupp had announced its intention to sell the Hamburg shipbuilder after a planned joint venture (JV) to operate the firm with Abu Dhabi MAR fell through.
Meanwhile, in a major EU military development; Germany, along with France, Italy, Spain and Poland, have sent a confidential letter to the EUs foreign policy chief Lady Ashton asking her to bypass the UK for the creation of an EU operation headquarters. The British government has said that it intends to veto the creation of any single EU HQ, saying that it would duplicate NATO roles and frustrate cooperation with the United States. This stance is rejected by many European governments. Germany in particular is keen to see the creation of an EU HQ for EU missions, such as the Somalian anti-piracy operations. If the UK was bypassed in the creation of an EU HQ, it would be the first time that the Lisbon Treatys provisions for structured cooperation were enacted. This allows certain member states to engage in further cooperation without including all European states. Nevertheless, Germany continues to enthusiastically participate in several European Union – and NATO – military deployments and force generation initiatives. Although the question of military deployments abroad continues to be controversial in Germany, especially regarding ongoing combat operations, Berlin has chosen a path of participating internationally via a strict policy of military multilateralism.
Table of Contents
SWOT Analysis
Germany Security SWOT
Germany Defence SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
Europe In A Global Context
Europes Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Ratings
BMIs Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMIs Europe City Terrorism Index
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Germany Security Overview
Internal Threats
Domestic Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Threats
International Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: External Threats
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Defence Posture
Defence Reform
Germany Defence & Security Report Q1
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Conscription
International Deployments
Table: Germanys International Deployments
Coordination And Joint Operations
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Background
Table: Key Players In Germanys Defence Industry
Latest Developments
Timeline: Defence And Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Germany Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Germany Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Germany Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Germany Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Germany Defence Exports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Germany Defence Imports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016 (EURbn, unless otherwise stated)
Company Profiles
EADS
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann
Rheinmetall Group
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources 115