India Defence and Security Report Q3 2009

India’s general election campaign was relatively peaceful, although marred in part by Maoist rebel attacks in the north east during the poll, ending on May 16 2009. The Congress Party emerged as the biggest winner in the poll, leading the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to victory. In November 26 2008, 173 people were killed and scores more injured in terrorist attacks in Mumbai that were blamed on a Pakistan-based group. Subsequently, India increased its defence outlay for 2009 by as much as 34%. Tensions with Pakistan were re-ignited on June 2 with the release of Hafiz Saeed, the leader of a group tied to the Mumbai attacks, by the Lahore High Court, Pakistan. Vishnu Prakash, India's external affairs ministry spokesman, said: ‘His release raises serious doubts about Pakistan's sincerity in acting with determination against terrorist groups and individuals operating from its territory.’ India’s reaction to the Mumbai terrorist attacks included conducting joint military operation with China in December 2008. India’s defence minister held a series of talks with China’s navy to discuss how security along its 7,516km long coastline could be enhanced, given that the terrorists entered Mumbai by sea. In March 2009, sweeping changes to coastline security were announced, with the Navy being assigned as the ‘designated authority’ to co-ordinate operations. India has expressed concern over developments in the Swat Valley region in north west Pakistan, where Taliban extremists have been re-grouping following the breakdown of a truce made with the Pakistani government. Defence Minister AK Antony said that this was adding to India's worries after 26/11, and Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee described the Taliban as ‘a terrorist organisation’, which was ‘a danger to humanity and civilisation’. The Pakistan government has been making gains recently in its strong army offensive against the Taliban in the north west, which begun in April. India’s civilian nuclear pact with the US continues to be in the hands of the US congress, which is using its scrutiny of the deal as a leverage to influence India to limit its burgeoning relationship with Iran. The deal allows for complete civil nuclear energy trade and co-operation with the US, and will have a sizeable impact on the government’s efforts to increase its power supply in line with rocketing demand. It represents great benefits to India in the form of nuclear fuel and technology, The deal is perceived in some quarters as a realignment of India, still nominally a non-aligned state, with US foreign policy. Increasing military and defence co-operation with the US and Israel could create a rival axis to the expected Chinese regional dominance, and offer India a greater range of arms for procurement. From 2010 India and Russia have agreed to extend their Inter-Governmental Commission for Military and Technical Co-operation by another 10 years. India has been the largest importer of conventional arms among developing nations, yet its military exports are comparatively negligible. We expect India to continue its efforts to build strategic alliances to match its position as an emerging global power, and counterbalance a Sino-Pakistani partnership. This quarter, we have introduced a significant new aspect to BMI's Defence reports, which is the City Terrorism Rating (CTR). This assesses the risk of a terrorist attack. The CTR takes into account the overall BMI Terrorism Rating for the country in question. It also incorporates the ‘prevalence’ of terrorism, which recognises the frequency of attacks, and whether the city is a target for terrorists. The CTR also recognises the ‘threat’ of terrorism in terms of the likely numbers of victims and the ability of groups to launch sustained campaigns. In India, we assess the CTRs for Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi. The CTRs for these cities are 70, 40 and 35 respectively. In the Asia Pacific region, Kolkata rates more highly than most major cities in South East Asia, but Mumbai's and New Delhi's CTRs are among the lowest.