Indonesia Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Indonesia Security SWOT ....... 5
Indonesia Defence Industry SWOT ...................... 6
Indonesia Political SWOT....... 6
Indonesia Economic SWOT ................................. 7
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT .............. 7
Political Overview........................8
Security Risk Analysis..............10
BMI’s Security Ratings .............. 10
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings................................ 10
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ........... 11
Composite............................. 11
Regional rank....................... 11
Trend....... 11
Danger rating....................... 11
Regional Security: South East Asia......................... 11
Inter-State Conflicts.............. 12
Internal Conflicts .................. 13
Indonesia’s Security Risks ......... 14
Terrorism Risk ...................... 14
Conflict Risk ......................... 14
Physical Safety Risk.............. 15
Security Overview .....................16
Internal Security Situation ................................. 16
Table: Indonesia’s Insurgent Groups ................ 19
External Security Situation ................................ 19
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........22
Armed Forces ....................... 22
Defence Budget..................... 24
Army ........ 24
Navy......... 25
Air Force .............................. 26
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) ............................ 26
International Deployments................................. 27
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................... 27
Market Overview........................28
Industry Trends And Developments ................... 28
Competitive Landscape......... 29
Table: Key Players In Indonesia Defence Sector............................ 29
Arms Trade Overview........... 30
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 31
Industry Forecast Scenario .......32
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry............................... 32
Table: Indonesia’s Armed Forces, 2004-2012 (‘000 personnel)..... 32
Table: Indonesia’s Total Government Defence Expenditure, 2004-2012...................... 33
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario.............. 33
Macroeconomic Forecast .................................. 33
Table: Indonesia – Macroeconomic Activity, 2006-2013................ 36
Company Profiles......................37
PT Dirgantara Indonesia...... 37
PT Pindad............................. 38
PT PAL ................................. 39
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data ............................40
Section 1: Population............ 40
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030...... 40
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ..... 41
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................ 41
Table: Education, 2000-2005 ............................ 41
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...................... 41
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................. 42
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006........ 42
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) ........................... 42
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 (IDR) ................................ 43
BMI Forecast Modelling............44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 44
Defence Industry................... 44
Sources ......... 45