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Market |
Defence |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Indonesia |
Published |
6 January 2012 |
Number of Pages |
114 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
File Format |
Indonesia found itself at the heart of Asian – if not world – diplomacy in November 2011, as Bali played host to back-to-back gatherings of world leaders: the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and the East Asia Summit (EAS). The two events assumed particular importance in 2011, with Chinas relations with its neighbours and the United States re-engagement with the Asia-Pacific dominating the agenda. For Indonesia the summits were therefore a significant opportunity to assert its status as a key player in South East Asian diplomacy and stability.
Indeed, Indonesia successfully took this opportunity on several different fronts. On the key issue for ASEAN of whether to allow Myanmar to hold the groups rotating chair in 2014, Indonesias role was decisive. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa visited Myanmar ahead of the ASEAN Summit to assess the countrys ongoing reform process, and his report – which stated that in his view real progress was being made – was central to ASEANs decision to hand Myanmar its turn as chair. Indonesian support for Myanmar – with Jakarta now regarded as a pillar of democracy in South East Asia having made the kind of transition from authoritarianism that Myanmar is now embarking upon – will be crucial in lending international credibility to the countrys reforms.
Indonesias measured reaction to one of the major talking points of the EAS – the US agreement with Australia to begin basing Marines, aircraft and naval vessels in Darwin – was also diplomatically important. With China expressing concern over the move, Indonesian officials were more equivocal, pointing out that while they too were concerned about the new bases impact on regional stability but also that the presence of the US Marines could lead to multilateral training opportunities that could boost ties between regional militaries. Jakarta is also understood to regard the US as a stabilising force in the region. Perhaps in order to reassure Indonesia of their friendly intentions, both Australia and the US offered assistance in Jakartas efforts to modernise its outdated military. In November, Canberra announced that it was donating four C-130 Hercules transport aircraft – a capability that Indonesia desperately needs – worth US$30mn to the Indonesia armed forces. And in October, the Indonesian House of Representatives agreed to a request from the military to accept a US offer of 24 second-hand F-16 fighter aircraft. Party politics had briefly held up the deal, with the some lawmakers opposing the deal on the grounds that it would increase Indonesias military dependence on the US. However, this obstacle was soon overcome as the House recognised that offers of this sort could not be turned down given the daunting challenge of replacing the militarys inventory of largely defunct equipment. Under the terms of the agreement, Jakarta will pay US$750mn to have the F-16s upgraded in the US ahead of delivery.
However, Indonesias most pressing internal security problem, the status of Papua and the islanders calls for independence, did not near any resolution in the latter part of 2011. A clash between police and armed men thought to have been associated with the Free Papua Movement resulted in eight deaths in November; in October, security forces killed six people taking part in a pro-independence meeting.
Though the countrys Commission for Human Rights responded to the deaths by calling for the government to withdraw troops from Papua as a goodwill gesture that would help to initiate peace talks, and despite expressions of concern from the US and Australia, Jakarta has shown no indication that it plans to drop its military-led strategy. Amid a heightened state of security in Papua, there was some hope in the appointment by the president of a new special envoy to begin a dialogue with the Free Papua Movement and other stakeholders. However, the larger peace initiative that President Yudhoyono has promised throughout his time in office, and the curbing of the militarys excesses in Papua, have yet to be set in train.
Instability in Papua currently poses the greatest threat to Indonesias security, with the province experiencing widespread violence, as well as peaceful independence protests, during August. President Yudhoyonos offer of dialogue with Papuan leaders needs to be followed up with urgent action, as the extra-constitutional activities of the Indonesian armed forces in the province continue to provoke its inhabitants and also stoke the long-running insurgency waged by the Free Papua Movement.
In light of events in Papua, where the TNI has been accused of conducting illegal surveillance operations, the introduction of a new intelligence bill to the Indonesian parliament in June raised hopes that the Yudhoyono administration would finally advance the countrys stalled security sector reforms. Though the proposals have met with opposition, the countrys military intelligence services could come under tighter civilian control as a result of the changes.
The imprisonment of Jemaah Islamiyahs (JIs) spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir in June was arguably the high watermark of Indonesias campaign against Islamist terror networks in the South East Asian region. However, while the threat from JI appears greatly diminished in its traditional form, the government is concerned about growing numbers of young men who risk being radicalised at Islamic boarding schools or over the internet.
However, the governments failure to clamp down on growing religious intolerance in Indonesia appears to run counter to its hopes to curbing Islamism. In particular, harsh sentences handed down to members of the Ahmadiyah religious sect for actions portrayed in most reports as self-defence in the face of attacks by Muslim groups led to widespread allegations that the country was at risk of betraying its founding principle of religious equality.
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