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Iran Defence and Security Report Q4 2009
Market |
Defence |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Iran |
Published |
16 September 2009 |
Number of Pages |
60 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Fissures have opened up within the regime hierarchy in Iran, posing risks to long-term political stability
Iran is likely to remain stable in the short-to-medium term, although June 2009's disputed elections and the government's subsequent response has severely dented the latter's legitimacy. Fissures have opened up within the regime hierarchy, posing risks to long-term political stability.
In the short term, the Iranian government is in little danger of collapse. While the scale of the protests and the strength of feeling in the aftermath of June's disputed presidential elections appeared to have caught the regime off guard, at least initially, a robust crackdown by security forces quickly quelled the unrest.
However, recent events could have considerable long-term implications. Indeed, the government's handling of the election and the subsequent protests could well adversely impact the Islamic Republic's long-term political stability. As such, we have lowered our long-term political risk rating for Iran from 50.2 to 46.8.
The protests that convulsed Tehran in the fortnight following June 12's polls mainly arose due to widespread suspicions of vote rigging in favour of the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
They were the largest demonstrations of public discontent in Iran since the Islamic Revolution 30 years ago – the strength of feeling was clear to see. However, while the protestors may have been united over the perceived injustice of the election, they were by no means united over their desired vision for the future. For this reason, above all, the protests ran out of steam once the government made a concerted effort to break them up.
Events of the last several weeks have not only highlighted the deep animosity between the reformists and conservatives in Iran, but have brought to light significant divisions within the conservative camp as well.
The public airing of these divisions does not bode well for long-term political stability.
One of the consequences of the mass protests in the wake of June's disputed presidential elections and the subsequent robust crackdown by the security services is that elements within the regime hierarchy have become far less inhibited when it comes to airing political grievances in public. Of course, this statement most notably applies to reformists such as defeated candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi (who as we have repeatedly pointed out, is by no means a regime outsider, having served as prime minister in the 1980s).
Indeed, Mousavi continues to maintain that the victory of conservative incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is illegitimate, and he recently published a speech on his website that accused the government of a catalogue of crimes and abuses.
However, hardliners are also becoming increasingly vociferous. Indeed, the decision by Ahmadinejad to appoint Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie – a relative of the president's by marriage – to first vice-president, has brought to light considerable differences within the conservative camp. The initial anger among hardliners at the appointment of Mashaie (whose 'crime' was to say last year that Iran was a friend of the Israeli people) was compounded by the fact that Ahmadinejad initially defied Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when the latter ordered him to de-select Mashaie. Though Ahmadinejad eventually relented to Khamenei's authority, the president's behaviour induced Iranian weekly Ya-Lesarat to threaten to withdraw support for the president if he were to challenge the Supreme Leader again.
In spite of the ongoing political infighting within the top levels of the regime, we do not think that Ahmadinejad's position as president is under threat. Ahmadinejad was sworn in for a second four-year term on August 6 and it would take far more than the current controversy over Mashaie for the Supreme Leader to actively remove him from power. Indeed, despite Ahmadinejad's recent defiance of Khamenei, the latter likely realises that such a move would only empower the reformists, who themselves claim that Ahmadinejad stole June's election in the first place.
For Q309, the updated the methodology of its Terrorism Rating and expanded it to cover 170 global cities, as well as 130 states. As before, the Terrorism Rating incorporates our analysts’ qualitative view of the terrorist threat. However, it also incorporates secondary analysis of data on global terrorist incidents obtained from the US State Department’s Worldwide Incidents Tracking System, to provide a quantitative assessment of the risks.
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