Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Iraq Security SWOT................ 5
Iraq Defence Industry SWOT............................... 6
Iraq Political SWOT ............... 6
Iraq Economic Industry SWOT............................ 7
Iraq Business Environment SWOT....................... 7
Political Overview........................8
Domestic Political Outlook.................................. 8
Foreign Relations ................. 11
Security Risk Analysis..............12
BMI’s Security Ratings .............. 12
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ........ 12
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index .................. 13
Regional Security: The Middle East And North Africa ........................ 13
Iraq – Security Risk Ratings....... 15
Conflict Risk ......................... 16
Terrorism Risk ...................... 16
Physical Safety Risk.............. 16
Security Overview .....................18
Internal Security Situation ................................. 18
Table: Iraq’s Insurgent Groups ......................... 18
Latest Developments ............. 19
External Security Situation ................................ 21
Latest Developments ............. 22
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........23
Armed Forces ....................... 23
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) ............................ 23
Current Strength ................... 23
Historical Strength................ 24
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................... 25
Market Overview........................26
Arms Trade Overview........... 26
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 26
Industry Forecast Scenario .......29
Table: Iraq’s Defence Sector, 2005-2012 (‘000) ............................ 29
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario.............. 30
Macroeconomic Forecast .................................. 30
Table: Iraq – Macroeconomic Activity, 2006-2013 ........................ 32
Company Profile........................33
Dabin Group......................... 33
Country Snapshot: Iraq Demographic Data .........34
Section 1: Population............ 34
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030...... 34
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ..... 35
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................ 35
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................ 35
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...................... 35
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................. 36
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004........ 36
BMI Forecast Modelling............37
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 37
Defence Industry................... 37
Sources ......... 38