Italy Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ..................................5
SWOT Analysis........6
Italy Political SWOT................... 6
Italy Economic SWOT................. 6
Italy Security SWOT.................... 7
Italy Defence Industry SWOT ..... 7
Political Overview....8
Domestic Political Outlook......... 8
Security Risk Analysis............................10
BMI’s Security Ratings .................. 10
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ........... 10
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index.... 11
Regional Security: Europe............. 12
Overview................................... 12
International Terrorism ............ 13
Criminal Activities .................... 15
Italy – Security Risk Ratings .......... 15
Italy – Conflict Risk .................. 15
Italy – Terrorism Risk ............... 16
Italy – Physical Safety Risk....... 16
Security Overview ...................................17
Internal Security Situation ............. 17
Organised Crime ...................... 17
Latest Developments ................. 17
Timeline: Internal Threats ........ 19
Table: Italy Insurgent Groups..................................... 22
External Security Situation ............ 22
International Terrorism ............ 22
Latest Developments ................. 24
Timeline: External Threats ....... 24
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............................27
Armed Forces ................................ 27
Table: Regional Armed Forces (Including Conscripted) 2007 ...................... 27
Defence Posture........................ 28
Defence Reform ........................ 28
International Deployments........ 30
Table: Italy Foreign Deployments .............................. 30
Co-ordination And Joint Operations........................... 31
Weapons Of Mass Destruction.................................... 31
Market Structure....33
Arms Trade Overview .................... 34
Imports...................................... 34
Exports...................................... 34
Defence And Procurement Trends And Development ................................... 35
Latest Developments ................. 35
Timeline: Defence And Procurement .......................... 36
Table: Italy Defence Key Players ............................... 37
Industry Background................. 37
Procurement Background ......... 38
Industry Forecast Scenario .....................39
Army Enlargements................... 39
Table: Army Enlargements ....... 39
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry........... 41
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry ................................. 41
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario....................... 42
Macroeconomic Forecast.......................43
Table: Italy - Economic Activity ................................. 45
Company Profiles....................................46
AgustaWestland ........................ 46
Alenia Aeronautica ................... 48
Avio......... 50
Fincantieri ................................ 51
Finmeccanica............................ 53
MBDA....................................... 55
Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data............................57
Section 1: Population................ 57
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............... 57
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .............. 58
Section 2: Education And Healthcare......................... 58
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ..................................... 58
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030............................... 58
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ......... 59
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006................. 59
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 59
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 .......................... 60
BMI Forecast Modelling..........................61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................. 61
Defence Industry....................... 61
Sources ........ 62