Executive Summary ................5
SWOT Analysis........................6
Japan Security SWOT...................................6
Japan Defence Industry SWOT.....................6
Japan Political SWOT ..................................7
Japan Economic SWOT ................................7
Global Political Outlook........................................8
Table: Countries Facing Major Leadership Succession In 2010-2019 ....................10
Table: Countries At Risk Of Major Political Upheaval ............13
Table: Countries At Risk Of Interstate Conflict Or Heightened Bilateral Tensions ...............................17
Table: Countries Facing Secessionist Or Autonomy Movements, Insurgencies, Or Civil Wars.............20
Table: Pivotal States...................................23
North East Asia Security Overview ....................26
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .....................26
The Korean Peninsula ................................27
The Taiwan Strait .......................................30
Disputed Islands .........................................31
China ............................32
Organised Crime ........................................33
The Evolution Of North East Asia...............33
Political Overview..................36
Domestic Politics........................................36
Long-Term Political Outlook......................38
Security Risk Analysis........................................42
Security Ratings ...............................42
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings..........................42
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ...................................43
Japan's Security Ratings.............................43
City Terrorism Rating.................................44
Table: Asia City Terrorism Index...................................45
Security Overview .................46
Internal Security Situation ..........................46
Table: Japan – Non-State Armed Groups .................................47
External Security Situation .........................47
Territorial Disputes ....................................48
External Diplomatic Relations....................49
US-Japan Relations ....................................49
Relations With North Korea And China....................................50
Armed Forces And Government Spending .....................................52
Armed Forces ...............52
Table: Regional Military Strength, 2007 ('000)........................52
Normalisation Of Japan's Defence Forces ...............................53
Defence Budget.............55
International Deployments..........................56
Weapons Of Mass Destruction....................56
Market Overview....................58
Table: Defence Research And Development As % Of Government R&D Budget, Selected Developed States ....................... 58
Industry Trends And Developments ............59
Procurement Trends And Developments...................................60
Competitive Landscape...............................61
Industry Forecast Scenario .................................63
Armed Forces ...............63
Table: Japan's Armed Forces, 2006-2014 ('000 personnel)...................................63
Government Defence Expenditure ..............63
Table: Japan's Defence Expenditure And Employment, 2006-2014 ........................64
Macroeconomic Forecast ...........................65
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2007-3013 .........................67
Historical Data & Forecasts.......................67
Company Profiles..................68
Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI) .......................68
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) ..........................69
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) ..............70
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).............72
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data.................................73
Section 1: Population..................................73
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030.............................73
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ............................74
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.........74
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .....................74
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...............74
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......................75
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006...............................75
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .....................76
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012...............................76
Forecast Modelling......................................77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...............................77
Defence Industry.........................................77
City Terrorism Rating.................................78
Table: Methodology....................................80
Sources .........................81