Libya Defence and Security Report Q2 2010

Executive Summary ....................................................5
SWOT Analysis............................................................6
Libya Security SWOT.................... 6
Libya Defence Industry SWOT.......................................................................................... 7
Global Political Outlook, 2010.....................................8
Table: Election Timetable, 2010....................................................................................... 8
The United States........................ 14
Latin America ............................. 15
Europe ........................................ 16
Middle East................................. 18
Africa.......................................... 19
Asia............................................. 20
What Could Surprise Us In 2010? .................................................................................. 21
Middle East Security Overview, Q210 ......................23
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security.......................................................... 23
The Outlook For The Middle East .................................................................................. 32
Political Overview......................................................34
Security Risk Analysis..............................................38
Security Ratings ............... 38
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ........................................ 38
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................ 39
Libya’s Security Risk Rating........................................................................................... 39
City Terrorism Rating................. 41
Table: Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ................................. 42
Domestic Security Overview....................................43
Internal Security Situation .............................................................................................. 43
Table: Libyan Insurgent Groups..................................................................................... 45
Latest Developments ................... 45
External Security Situation ............................................................................................. 45
Latest Developments – Megrahi’s Release...................................................................... 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............48
Armed Forces ............................. 48
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)........................................ 48
Equipment................................... 50
International Deployments.............................................................................................. 50
Table: International Deployments .................................................................................. 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................................................................................ 51
Market Overview........................................................53
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 54
Latest Developments ................... 56
Procurement Trends And Developments......................................................................... 56
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................59
Table: Libya’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel) ........................................... 59
Table: Libya’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 ........................................ 60
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario........................................................................... 61
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ................................................................................ 61
Table: Libya – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ................................................................ 63
Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data..........64
Section 1: Population.................. 64
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................................................................... 64
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................................................................. 65
Section 2: Education and Healthcare ............................................................................. 65
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ......................................................................................... 65
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................................................................... 65
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power.............................................................. 66
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................................................... 66
Methodology ......................................................67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..................................................................... 67
Defence Industry......................... 67
City Terrorism Rating................. 68
Table: Methodology.................... 70
Sources ....................................... 71