Philippines Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Philippines Security SWOT.................................. 6
Philippines Defence Industry SWOT.................... 7
Philippines Political SWOT ................................. 7
Philippines Economic SWOT............................... 8
Philippines Business Environment SWOT............ 8
Political Overview........................9
Security Risk Analysis..............12
BMI’s Security Ratings .............. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings................................ 12
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ........... 13
Composite............................. 13
Regional rank....................... 13
Trend....... 13
Danger rating....................... 13
Regional Security....................... 13
Trends And Developments ................................. 13
Inter-State Conflicts.............. 14
Internal Conflicts .................. 15
Philippines Security Risk Ratings ........................... 16
Terrorist Risk........................ 16
Conflict Risk ......................... 16
Security Overview .....................18
Internal Security Situation ................................. 18
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ...... 18
The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)................................ 19
The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) ............................ 20
New People’s Army (NPA)................................. 21
Table: Philippines’ Insurgent Groups................ 21
External Security Situation ................................ 22
Piracy ................................... 22
Table: Piracy In South East Asia, 1992-2005 ................................. 23
Bilateral Military Relations ............................... 23
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........25
Armed Forces ....................... 25
Defence Budget..................... 27
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) ............................ 27
International Deployments................................. 28
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................... 28
Market Overview........................30
Industry Trends And Developments ................... 30
Arms Trade Overview........... 31
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 32
Industry Forecast Scenario .......34
Government Expenditure ...... 35
Table: Philippines’ Armed Forces, 2004-2013 (‘000 personnel).... 36
Table: Philippines’ Government Defence Expenditure, 2003-2013 .............................. 36
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ................... 37
Table: Philippines – Macroeconomic Activity, 2006-2013 ............. 39
Company Profiles......................40
Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor) ............................. 40
Government Arsenal (GA) ................................. 41
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data..........................42
Section 1: Population............ 42
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030...... 42
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ..... 43
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................ 43
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................ 43
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...................... 43
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................. 44
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006........ 44
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) ........................... 44
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 ............ 45
BMI Forecast Modelling............46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 46
Defence Industry................... 46
Sources ......... 47