Poland Defence and Security Report Q4 2009

Post-Cold War Poland faces few security concerns, and its recent entry into the EU and NATO has added to its military and political stability. However, Poland’s 2003 National Security Strategy highlights the new global threats it faces as a member of the Euro-Atlantic community. It identifies these threats as stemming primarily from international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the unpredictable policies of authoritarian regimes and ‘failed states’, which in turn exacerbate the risks of international terrorism and the spread of WMD.

Poland maintains troops in both Afghanistan and Iraq, which has left the country vulnerable to possible terrorist attacks. There are no active terrorist groups operating within the country, and no evidence indicating a terrorist threat against any specific target. The country does not possess a significant Muslim community in which to conceal international terrorist cells.

Poland’s geographical position in Europe and its entry into the EU make it a prime location for the trafficking of illegal immigrants, arms and narcotics. These problems are not as pronounced as those in countries further south. Nonetheless, significant sums of money are being invested in the Border Guards paramilitary unit to secure the lengthy border with the Ukraine and prevent smuggling of illicit goods and people.

Poland currently maintains active armed forces of some 162,900, with 89,000 belonging to the army, 14,300 to the navy, 30,000 to the air force, 8,200 in the joint command, and 21,400 members of the paramilitary forces. The majority of the paramilitary are border guards. Historically, a large part of the army manpower was supplied by conscripts. However, in January 2009 conscription was ended, and the remaining conscripts will have completed their service by the end of August.

Poland is planning to increase its number of special forces personnel by 2-3% (2,500-3,000 troops) and is setting up a separate Special Forces Command. The development of special forces is one of the top priorities for NATO, and Poland has offered one of its training areas for use by NATO’s special forces.

Poland’s military is currently in a process of transition. The country’s membership of NATO since 1999 is driving the military to restructure and modernise. It is estimated that the cost of modernisation during the years 2003 to 2008 was US$3.9bn.

During the communist era, the defence sector played an important role in Poland, involving every part of the country’s industrial base. Poland was the third largest military producer in the former Warsaw Treaty Organisation, after the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia. The collapse of the Soviet Union had a devastating effect on the defence sector. Despite government efforts to maintain it as a prominent sector, the loss of demand from the former Soviet Union, a decline in domestic orders, and a shrinking global overseas market forced the military industrial base to contract sharply. In 1988, 180,000 people were employed within the defence industry. By 1995, this number had declined to 88,000 and by 2000 it was a mere 60,000. Since the end of the Soviet Union, defence production has fallen by over 80%. A programme of restructuring that is currently being implemented is attempting to stimulate investment through consolidation, specialisation and a move towards greater privatisation.

A large percentage of the firms now operating are either sub-contractors for major international defence companies or refurbish equipment already in service with the Polish armed forces. Current arms production is mostly for the domestic market, while only a small fraction is exported.

The country’s defence industry is, however, gaining credibility internationally, and is increasingly recognised as a reliable supplier of heavy weaponry and industrial vehicles. This is reflected in, for example, recently reported efforts by Italy’s Aermacchi to bring Polish aerospace companies into the development and manufacture of the M-346 lead-in fighter trainer (LIFT) aircraft, which envisages the potential for Polish companies to be a risk-sharing partner.

Looking forwards, we have long held the view that the Polish economy is one of the better positioned within emerging Europe to recover from the present global financial crisis and economic downturn relatively unscathed. Aside from fairly sound management of the macroeconomy and limited leverage in the banking sector, there is also broad political stability and limited signs of social unrest, which have provided a further stabiliser for the economy. Indeed, whereas Central European peers Hungary and the Czech Republic have seen their respective governments collapse, further compounding domestic economic instability, the Polish government has remained stable throughout its term.