Executive Summary ....................................................5
SWOT Analysis............................................................6
South Africa Security SWOT............................................................................................. 6
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT............................................................................... 6
South Africa Political SWOT ............................................................................................ 7
South Africa Economic SWOT .......................................................................................... 7
South Africa Business Environment SWOT....................................................................... 8
Global Political Outlook, 2010.....................................9
Table: Election Timetable, 2010....................................................................................... 9
The United States........................ 14
Latin America ............................. 15
Europe ........................................ 16
Middle East................................. 18
Africa.......................................... 19
Asia............................................. 21
What Could Surprise Us In 2010? .................................................................................. 22
Political Overview......................................................23
Security Risk Analysis..............................................26
Security Ratings ............... 26
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ........................................ 26
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................ 27
South Africa – Security Ratings ...................................................................................... 27
City Terrorism Rating................. 28
Table: Africa City Terrorism Index...................................................................... 29
Security Overview .....................................................31
Internal Security Situation .............................................................................................. 31
Table: Insurgent Groups In South Africa........................................................................ 32
Latest Developments ................... 32
External Security Situation ............................................................................................. 34
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............35
Armed Forces ............................. 35
New Role For The SANDF.............................................................................................. 36
Acquisitions ................................ 36
HIV/AIDS.................................... 36
‘Army Vision 2020’..................... 37
International Deployments.............................................................................................. 37
Table: South African Foreign Deployments.................................................................... 38
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................................................................................ 38
Market Overview........................................................40
Arms Trade Overview................. 41
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 42
Procurement Trends And Developments......................................................................... 43
Air Force .................................... 44
Navy............................................ 45
Army ........................................... 45
Latest developments.................... 45
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................46
Armed Forces ............................. 46
Table: South Africa’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel) ................................. 46
Table: South Africa’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014.............................. 48
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario........................................................................... 48
Macroeconomic Outlook................................................................................................. 49
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2007-2014..................................................... 50
Company Profiles......................................................52
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa ........................................................................ 52
Denel .......................................... 54
ADS (African Defence Systems) ...................................................................................... 56
Aerosud....................................... 57
Grintek Defence & Technologies .................................................................................... 58
Reutech ....................................... 59
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data .................................................................................60
Section 1: Population.................. 60
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................................................................... 60
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................................................................. 61
Section 2: Education And Healthcare............................................................................. 61
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ......................................................................................... 61
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................................................................... 61
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................................................. 62
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006..................................................................... 62
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................................................... 62
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012..................................................................... 63
Methodology..............................................................64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..................................................................... 64
Defence Industry......................... 64
City Terrorism Rating................. 65
Table: Methodology.................... 67
Sources ....................................... 67