South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2009

Executive Summary .............5
SWOT Analysis....6
South Africa Security SWOT. 6
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT.... 6
South Africa Political SWOT ................. 7
South Africa Economic SWOT ............... 7
South Africa Business Environment SWOT............... 8
Political Overview.................9
Security Risk Analysis.......11
BMI’s Security Ratings ............ 11
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 11
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index .................. 12
South Africa – Security Ratings ................ 13
Conflict Risk ...... 13
Terrorism Risk ... 13
Physical Safety Risk............ 13
City Terrorism Rating.............. 15
Methodological Overview... 16
Table: Methodology............ 16
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index.............. 17
Security Overview ..............19
Internal Security Situation .. 19
Table: South Africa – Insurgent Groups ................. 19
Latest Developments ........... 20
External Security Situation . 21
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........23
Armed Forces .... 23
Historical Strength.............. 23
New Role For The SANDF.. 24
Acquisitions ....... 24
HIV/AIDS........... 24
‘Army Vision 2020’............. 25
International Deployments.. 25
Table: South African Foreign Deployments............ 26
Weapons Of Mass Destruction............. 26
Market Overview.................28
Arms Trade Overview......... 29
Industry Trends And Developments ..... 30
Procurement Trends And Developments................. 31
Air Force ........... 32
Navy................... 33
Army .................. 33
Industry Forecast Scenario .................34
Armed Forces .... 34
Table: South Africa’s Armed Forces, 2004-2012.... 34
Table: South Africa’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2005-2013........ 36
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario................... 36
Macroeconomic Outlook..... 37
South Africa – Economic Activity, 2005-2013......... 38
Company Profiles...............40
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa ................ 40
Denel ................. 41
ADS (African Defence Systems) ........... 42
Grintek Defence & Technologies ......... 43
Reutech .............. 44
Aerosud.............. 45
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data ...........46
Section 1: Population.......... 46
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........... 46
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .......... 47
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.... 47
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .............. 47
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........ 47
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ..... 48
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006............. 48
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 48
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012............. 49
BMI Forecast Modelling.....50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............. 50
Defence Industry................. 50
Sources .............. 51