Spain Defence and Security Report Q2 2009

Executive Summary ..............................................5
Spain Security SWOT........ 6
Spain Defence Industry SWOT....................................... 7
Spain Political SWOT....... 8
Political Overview.....9
Security Risk Analysis........................................11
BMI’s Security Ratings ................................................ 11
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings ............ 11
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index..... 12
Regional Security: Europe................................................ 13
Overview......................... 13
International Terrorism ............................................... 14
Criminal Activities .......... 16
Spain – Security Risk Ratings ........................................... 16
Spain – Conflict Risk....... 17
Spain – Terrorism Risk ................................................ 17
Spain – Physical Safety Risk ........................................ 17
Security Overview ...............................................18
Domestic Terrorism........ 18
Table: Background Brief – ETA................................... 21
Latest Developments ....... 22
Table: Timeline – Internal Threats .............................. 24
International Terrorism ............................................... 26
Latest Developments ....... 28
Table: Timeline – External Threats ............................ 29
Armed Forces And Government Spending .......31
Armed Forces ................. 31
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2007, ‘000s......................... 31
Defence Posture.............. 32
Defence Reform .............. 33
International Deployments........................................... 35
Table: Spain Foreign Deployments.............................. 35
Co-ordination And Joint Operations............................ 36
Weapons Of Mass Destruction..................................... 36
Market Structure.....37
Arms Trade Overview .......... 38
Imports............................ 38
Exports............................ 38
Latest Developments ............ 40
Table: Timeline – Defence And Procurement .............. 40
Background.......................... 42
Industry Forecast Scenario .................................44
Army Enlargements......... 44
Table: Army Enlargements, 2005-2013 (‘000)............. 44
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry............ 45
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry ............................................. 45
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario........................ 46
Table: Spain – Economic Activity, 2005 -2013 ............ 48
Company Profiles...49
EADS CASA.................... 49
General Dynamics Santa Barbara Sistemas ................ 51
Indra ............................... 52
ITP.................................. 53
Navantia – Formerly known as Izar............................. 54
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data ...56
Section 1: Population...... 56
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................ 56
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ............... 57
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.......................... 57
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ...................................... 57
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................ 57
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......... 58
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006.................. 58
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 58
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ...................................... 59
BMI Forecast Modelling......................................60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .................. 60
Defence Industry............. 60
Sources ................................ 61