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Sudan Defence and Security Report Q3 2010
Market |
Defence |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Sudan |
Published |
21 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
73 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Sudan’s first ostensibly democratic, multi-party elections for 24 years in April 2010 left the political landscape fundamentally unchanged, although it was followed by the country’s deadliest month in two years. National Congress Party (NCP)’s incumbent President Omar al-Bashir predictably achieved an overwhelming majority, amid ubiquitous allegations of fraud. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)’s Salva Kiir apparently won the presidential election for south Sudan. That the elections did not result in severe unrest is only a sign that all parties are holding their breath for the January 2011 referendum. We believe this continuing tension will strengthen defence spending in Sudan to SDG4.18bn (US$1.84bn) in 2010.
We expect military expenditure to continue growing year-on-year (y-o-y) in the medium-term, jumping to SDG5.31bn (US$2.445bn) in 2011. Indeed, the Khartoum government’s rivals contented themselves with boycotts of the election only in anticipation of the referendum in 2011, whose outcome is sufficiently pivotal to reignite large-scale conflict and dismantle the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The bulk of international efforts over the next six months will concentrate on safeguarding the fragile CPA and preventing a slide into civil war as a result, or lack, of the referendum. The upturn in violence after the elections was largely a result of failure in talks with Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), along with tribal violence, leaving as many as 600 dead in May 2010. A government operation to eject JEM forces from a location near Sudan’s border with Chad helped inflate the number of deaths. Negotiations appear to have deteriorated altogether, with JEM claiming that the talks have indeed ended in stalemate because of government obstinacy. JEM forces claimed later that they had defeated a government attack in Uzben and elsewhere in El Fashar. State-linked media made a counter-claim that the army had defeated JEM rebels, killing 43 JEM militants and losing seven soldiers. Leaving the February 2010 ceasefire agreement in tatters, there is little sign of conflict between the government and JEM abating, with the latter’s leader Khalil Ibrahim threatening to invade Khartoum, according to Saudi-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat.
The western region of Darfur saw fighting between Arab nomads and South Sudan’s army in April 2010, leaving at least 55 people dead and 85 injured. Security in the region is extremely tenuous as members of the Rezeigat tribe make their way to the location of the clashes, just as army reinforcements arrive. Meanwhile, south Sudan’s army spokesman Major General Kuol said in June 2010 that the south would be launching an air force by year-end ahead of the January 2011 referendum. Kuol claimed that pilots and engineers had already been trained but refused to reveal order volumes. Kuol also denied that the move would be in violation of the CPA and instead played it down as part of a modernisation process. Kuol also refused to disclose the companies or countries that might supply the military planes.
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