Syria Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Syria Security SWOT .............. 5
Syria Defence Industry SWOT ............................. 6
Syria Political SWOT.............. 6
Syria Economic SWOT............ 7
Syria Business Environment SWOT ..................... 7
Political Overview........................8
Security Risk Analysis..............10
BMI’s Security Ratings .............. 10
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ........ 10
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index .................. 11
Middle East And North Africa................................. 11
Trends And Developments ......... 11
Syria’s Security Risk Ratings .................................. 13
Conflict Risk ......................... 13
Terrorism Risk ...................... 14
Physical Safety Risk.............. 14
Security Risk Overview.............15
Internal Security Situation ................................. 15
Latest Developments ............. 16
External Security Situation ................................ 17
Latest Developments ............. 18
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........21
Armed Forces ............................ 21
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) ............................ 21
Current Strength ................... 21
International Deployments................................. 23
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................... 23
Latest Developments ............. 24
Market Overview........................25
Imports.................................. 26
Exports.................................. 26
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 26
Industry Forecast Scenario .......28
Table: Syrian Government’s Defence Expenditure, 2005-2012 ....... 28
Mutual Assistance................. 28
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario.............. 30
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ................... 30
Table: Syria - Economic Activity ....................... 32
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data .......33
Section 1: Population............ 33
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030...... 33
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ..... 34
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................ 34
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................ 34
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...................... 34
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................. 35
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003........ 35
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................... 35
BMI Forecast Modelling............36
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 36
Defence Industry................... 36
Sources ......... 37