Syria continues to crack down brutally on anti-regime protesters with the most recent (July 2011) assaults on Hama and the eastern towns of Deir al-Zour and Abu Kamal bringing the death toll to more than 1,400 since March 2011, when the protests and crackdown began. With international opinion over military intervention divided and little appetite in the West to get involved, President Bashar Assads regime would appear to be secure for now although some questions have been raised about the continued unity of the military.

There are also fears in some quarters that should Assad fall, the country, with 17 minority groups, could splinter into rival groups in a similar way to Iraq after the fall of Saddam. Regional powers Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have vested interests in the country and are likely to try to take advantage of any power vacuum presented by the uprising.

While Syria has accrued impressive combat experience since the formation of its armed forces in 1946, having participated in operations in Lebanon, and against Israel and Iraq, its levels of success have been mixed. In Iraq, the army was able to acquit itself well as part of the international coalition to expel Saddam Hussein from Kuwait during Operation Desert Storm in 1992. However, it has suffered several defeats at the hands of the Israelis, notably during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and during 1982 Operation Peace for Galilee. More recently, the moribund condition of the countrys air defences was highlighted when Israel was able to bomb a suspected nuclear reactor in eastern Syria with impunity. The dismal performance of Syrias air defences against this Israel incursion may be partially due to the condition of Syrias military equipment. The materiel used by its armed forces is long outdated, having been sourced mostly from the Soviet Union. It is possible that military and economic ties to Iran may come into play to support the Assad regimes survival. There has been little defence procurement in recent months since the beginning of the delivery of 50 Pantsyr-S1E air-defence systems from Russia, which began in 2010.

Syrias economy has stalled, while the closed borders have brought tourism to a standstill. Its only trading partners are Iran and North Korea. Even before the uprising began in March, the country was facing a catalogue of problems with an estimated 25% unemployment and water shortages exacerbating structural difficulties such as population growth and international isolation.