Syria Defence and Security Report Q2 2010

Executive Summary ....................................................5
SWOT Analysis............................................................6
Syria Security SWOT .................... 6
Syria Defence Industry SWOT .......................................................................................... 6
Syria Political SWOT.................... 7
Syria Economic SWOT.................. 7
Syria Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................. 8
Global Political Outlook, 2010.....................................9
Table: Election Timetable, 2010....................................................................................... 9
The United States........................ 15
Latin America ............................. 16
Europe ........................................ 17
Middle East................................. 19
Africa.......................................... 20
Asia............................................. 21
What Could Surprise Us In 2010? .................................................................................. 22
Middle East Security Overview, Q210 ......................24
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security.......................................................... 24
The Outlook For The Middle East .................................................................................. 33
Political Overview......................................................35
Security Risk Analysis..............................................37
Security Ratings ............... 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ........................................ 37
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................ 38
Syria’s Security Risk Ratings .......................................................................................... 38
City Terrorism Rating................. 40
Table: Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ................................. 40
Domestic Security Overview....................................42
Internal Security Situation .............................................................................................. 42
Latest Developments ................... 42
External Security Situation ............................................................................................. 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............46
Armed Forces ............................. 46
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted, ‘000) ............................... 46
International Deployments.............................................................................................. 48
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................................................................................ 48
Latest Developments ................... 49
Market Overview........................................................50
Imports........................................ 51
Exports........................................ 51
Procurement Trends And Developments......................................................................... 51
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................53
Table: Syria’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)............................................ 53
Table: Syrian Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 .......................................... 53
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario........................................................................... 55
Macroeconomic Outlook................................................................................................. 55
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2007-2014................................................................. 57
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data ..........58
Section 1: Population.................. 58
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................................................................... 58
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................................................................. 59
Section 2: Education And Healthcare............................................................................. 59
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ......................................................................................... 59
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................................................................... 59
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................................................. 60
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003..................................................................... 60
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................................................... 60
Methodology..............................................................61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..................................................................... 61
Defence Industry......................... 61
City Terrorism Rating................. 62
Table: Methodology.................... 64
Sources ....................................... 65