Thailand Defence and Security Report Q1 2010

Executive Summary ................5
SWOT Analysis........................6
Thailand Security SWOT...............................6
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT ................6
Thailand Political SWOT..............................7
Thailand Economic SWOT............................8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT ......................................9
Global Political Outlook......................................10
Table: Countries Facing Major Leadership Succession In 2010-2019 ....................12
Table: Countries At Risk Of Major Political Upheaval ............15
Table: Countries At Risk Of Interstate Conflict Or Heightened Bilateral Tensions ...............................19
Table: Countries Facing Secessionist Or Autonomy Movements, Insurgencies, Or Civil Wars.............22
Table: Pivotal States...................................25
South East Asia Security Overview....................27
Political Overview..................30
Security Risk Analysis........................................32
Security Ratings ...............................32
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings..........................32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ...................................33
Thailand’s Security Risk .............................33
City Terrorism Rating.................................34
Table: Asia City Terrorism Index...................................35
Security Overview .................36
Internal Security Situation ..........................36
BRN-K ..........................38
GMIP/PULO.................39
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents ...................39
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations...........................39
Drugs Trade..................40
Armed Forces And Government Spending .....................................42
Armed Forces ...............42
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) .......................42
International Deployments..........................44
Weapons of Mass Destruction.....................44
Market Overview....................45
Arms Trade Overview.................................45
Procurement Trends And Developments...................................46
Competitive Landscape...............................48
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players....................................49
Industry Forecast Scenario .................................50
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated)........................50
Table: Thailand’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 ...........................52
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ............52
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2007-2014.....................54
Company Profiles..................55
Loxley ...........................55
Minebea ........................56
Thai-Italian Interarms Company ................57
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data ............................58
Section 1: Population..................................58
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030.............................58
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ............................59
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.........59
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .....................59
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...............59
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......................60
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006...............................60
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .....................60
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012.................................61
Forecast Modelling......................................62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...............................62
Defence Industry.........................................62
City Terrorism Rating.................................63
Table: Methodology....................................65
Sources .........................66