Thailand Defence and Security Report Q2 2009

Executive Summary ....5
Thailand Security SWOT.................. 6
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT .................................... 7
Thailand Political SWOT................. 7
Thailand Economic SWOT............... 8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT ............................ 8
Political Overview........9
Security Risk Analysis...............................10
BMI’s Security Ratings ....................... 10
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings................ 10
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ............................ 11
Composite...................................... 11
Regional rank................................ 11
Trend............ 11
Danger rating................................ 11
Regional Security: South East Asia Q109 .................................12
Thailand’s Security Risk ..................... 14
Terrorism Risk ............................... 14
Physical Safety Risk....................... 14
Conflict Risk .................................. 14
Security Overview .....15
Internal Security Situation ............. 15
Recent Developments..................... 16
Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency .................................. 16
BRN-K .......... 17
GMIP/PULO.................................. 17
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents ...... 17
External Security Situation ............ 18
Drugs Trade................................... 18
Armed Forces And Government Spending ...............................19
Armed Forces ................................ 19
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscripted, ‘000) ................ 20
International Deployments............. 21
Weapons Of Mass Destruction....... 21
Market Overview........22
Arms Trade Overview.................... 22
Procurement Trends And Developments......................... 23
Competitive Landscape.................. 24
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players.......................... 25
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................26
Army Enlargements........................ 26
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry............... 26
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2004-2013 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated).................... 28
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces And Government Defence Expenditure, 2004-2013 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated) ........................ 28
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario ................................ 29
Table:Thailand - Economic Activity ............................... 30
Company Profiles......31
Loxley ........... 31
Asian Marine Services ................... 32
Thai-Italian Interarms Company .................................... 32
Minebea ........ 33
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data ......................34
Section 1: Population..................... 34
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................... 34
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................. 35
Section 2: Education And Healthcare............................. 35
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ........ 35
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................... 35
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............. 36
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006..................... 36
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........... 36
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012.......................... 37
BMI Forecast Modelling.............................38
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..................... 38
Defence Industry............................ 38
Sources .............. 39