Thailand Defence and Security Report Q3 2010

Executive Summary ................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis .............. 6
Thailand Security SWOT............................................. 6
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT .............................. 6
Thailand Political SWOT ............................................ 7
Thailand Economic SWOT .......................................... 8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT ...................... 9
Global Political Outlook ........................................................... 10
United States: Major Tests For Obama In 2010 ............... 10
Table: Election Timetable, 2010 ............................... 11
Western Europe: Fiscal Austerity Will Be Unpopular ................................................................... 13
Central And Eastern Europe: New Governments, Old Problems .................................................... 14
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges ............................ 15
Africa: The Election Conundrum .............................. 17
Asia: Broadly Stable, But ‘Rogues’ Need Vigilance ...................................................................... 18
Latin America: Political Risks Contained, But Watch Cartels ........................................................ 19
Wild Cards To Watch ................................................ 20
South East Asia Security Overview ......................................... 22
South East Asia In A Global Context ........................ 22
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security......................................................................... 22
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia ......................................................................... 25
Piracy In The Malacca Strait .................................... 27
The South China Sea/Spratly Islands ........................ 28
Other Regional Threats............................................. 29
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia .......................... 31
The Outlook For South East Asia .............................. 32
Indian Ocean: The Growing Struggle For Dominance .................. 33
The Geopolitical Significance Of The Indian Ocean ...................................................................... 34
China: Seeking A ‘String Of Pearls’ ......................... 36
Some Disclaimers On The ‘String Of Pearls’ ................... 39
India: Moving To Counter China .............................. 40
United States: A Powerful Force And A Key Balancer .................................................................. 42
Table: Indian Ocean Powers .................................... 43
The Other Players, Present And Future .................... 44
Passive Players: The East African Coast .................. 47
Key Risks To Minor Players...................................... 47
Conclusion: No Decisive Hegemon Likely ................ 48
Security Risk Analysis ............................................................. 49
Security Ratings ............................................. 49
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .................. 49
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .......................................................... 50
Thailand’s Security Risk ........................................... 50
City Terrorism Rating ............................................... 51
Table: Asia City Terrorism Index ................... 52
Political Overview ..................................................................... 53
Domestic Politics ...................................................... 53
Long-Term Political Outlook .................................... 55
Security Overview .................................................................... 58
Internal Security Situation ........................................ 58
Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency ............................ 59
BRN-K ...................................................................... 60
GMIP/PULO ............................................................. 61
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents ................................. 61
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations ................... 61
Drugs Trade .............................................................. 63
Armed Forces And Government Spending ............................ 64
Armed Forces ........................................................... 64
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel) ............... 64
International Deployments ........................................ 66
Weapons Of Mass Destruction .................................. 66
Market Overview ....................................................................... 67
Arms Trade Overview ............................................... 67
Procurement Trends And Developments ................... 68
Competitive Landscape ............................................. 70
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players .................... 71
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................................................... 72
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated) ................. 72
Table: Thailand’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 .................................................. 74
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .......................... 74
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .......................................................................... 76
Company Profiles ..................................................................... 77
Loxley ....................................................................... 77
Minebea .................................................................... 79
Thai-Italian Interarms Company .............................. 80
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data ................... 81
Section 1: Population................................................ 81
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ..................... 81
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................... 82
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ....................... 82
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ................................... 82
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ............................. 82
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............... 83
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ............... 83
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .......................................................................... 83
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012........................................................ 84
Methodology ..................................................................... 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............... 85
Defence Industry ....................................................... 85
City Terrorism Rating ............................................... 86
Table: Methodology .................................................. 88
Sources ..................................................................... 89