Turkey Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

A joint report written by the Open Society Institute (OSI – chaired by international investor George Soros) and Turkey’s Bosphorus University contended that secularists were becoming increasingly isolated in Turkish society, as a result of changing social structures since 2002 when the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power. The ruling party was investigated by the Turkish judiciary earlier in 2008 and found to be a focus of anti-secular activity; however, although it was fined, it was not dissolved, an outcome that would have set off a major political crisis. Secularism is considered a founding principle of the Turkish state and both the judiciary and the army have seen themselves playing a key role in its defence. The academic report said that ‘in every province we visited it was communicated to us that secularist people were being isolated as a result of the AK Party government appointing its own people and the economic power of religious communities’. It went on to say that a number of business leaders felt they needed to adopt a religious lifestyle for fear of being marginalised. Changes included business people who had previously not done so attending Friday prayers or closing their stores during prayer times to give the impression that they were at the mosque.

Despite the tensions between what could be described as secular and Muslim Turkey, BMI notes that the country’s political structure – and the civil-military relationship within it – remains resilient. A fatal division remains unlikely, given that both sides are fiercely nationalist – neither wanting to jeopardise Turkey’s EU membership efforts. Turkey faces a number of internal and external security threats. It has found itself on the front line of the ‘war on terror’, having been targeted by terrorist attacks perpetrated by Islamist groups in its major cities, and has suffered some consequences from the regional destabilisation caused by the war in Iraq. Furthermore, the increasing presence of ballistic missiles in the Middle East is of concern to Ankara.

Turkey is slowly embarking upon a modernisation of its armed forces and a reduction of the number of conscripts. The sheer size of the military stretches the establishment, but the number of troops is set to fall over the following years, as Turkey faces changed threats and a diminishing military budget. Turkey has long had a large military budget, a by-product of the dominant role played by the military in Turkish politics; however, the country’s weak economy, the pressure of EU membership hopes and the policy of the current government of assigning more funds to social programmes are likely to reduce the defence budget over the long term.

Turkey’s defence industry is relatively small, and lacks efficiency and quality in the design and production of weapons systems. It has long relied on purchases or co-operation with foreign partners.

However, the industry is growing due to the continued boost by the Under Secretariat for Defence Industries through the preferential awarding of procurement contracts and the stimulation of technology transfers (via foreign company involvement). The effects of this should be felt in terms of both increased efficiency and quality of domestic products. Turkey is the world’s fourth-largest arms importer. The volume of Turkey’s imports is unlikely to change in the near future despite the evolving political picture.

Exports remain relatively insignificant due to the state of its defence industry – it is the world’s 28th largest exporter. However, the move to boost local design and production is likely to increase exports over time as Turkey develops competitive products.

Domestic political stability is ensured but threats to Turkey’s security, from both internal and external sources, remain significant. Turkey has the second-largest armed forces in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which need to be equipped with NATO-compatible hardware. This represents a great cost for a country with a small defence industry and limited budget, but fortunately Ankara is perceived to be a pivotal player in relations between the West and the Muslim world.