Turkey Defence and Security Report Q2 2010

Executive Summary ....................................................5
SWOT Analysis............................................................6
Turkey Security SWOT.................. 6
Turkey Defence Industry SWOT........................................................................................ 6
Turkey Political SWOT ................. 7
Turkey Economic SWOT............... 7
Turkey Business Environment SWOT................................................................................ 8
Global Political Outlook, 2010.....................................9
Table: Election Timetable, 2010....................................................................................... 9
The United States........................ 15
Latin America ............................. 16
Europe ........................................ 16
Middle East................................. 18
Africa.......................................... 20
Asia............................................. 21
What Could Surprise Us In 2010? .................................................................................. 22
Regional Overviews ..................................................24
Central And Eastern Europe .......................................................................................... 24
Middle East ................................ 25
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security.......................................................... 26
The Outlook For The Middle East .................................................................................. 35
Political Overview......................................................37
Security Risk Analysis..............................................40
Security Ratings ............... 40
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .............................................................................. 40
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index................................... 41
Turkey’s Security Risk Ratings........................................................................................ 42
City Terrorism Rating................. 43
Table: Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ................................. 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ....... 44
Security Overview .....................................................46
Internal Security Situation .............................................................................................. 46
Table: Insurgent Groups................................................................................................. 47
External Security Situation ............................................................................................. 48
Table: Background Brief – Cyprus ................................................................................. 49
Armed Forces And Government Spending .............51
Armed Forces ............................. 51
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (000s, including conscripted) ............................... 51
International Deployments.............................................................................................. 53
Table: Foreign Deployments .......................................................................................... 53
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................................................................................ 54
Market Structure........................................................55
Arms Trade Overview................. 56
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 57
Table: Key Players In Turkey’s Defence Sector.............................................................. 57
Procurement Trends And Developments......................................................................... 60
Latest Developments ................... 63
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................64
Armed Forces ............................. 64
Table: Turkey’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel) .......................................... 64
Table: Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 .................................................... 65
Macroeconomic Outlook ................................................................................................ 65
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .............................................................. 68
Company Profiles......................................................69
Aselsan Military Electronics Industry Inc....................................................................... 69
Havelsan AS................................ 71
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data .......73
Section 1: Population.................. 73
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030................................................................... 73
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................................................................. 74
Section 2: Education And Healthcare............................................................................. 74
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ......................................................................................... 74
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................................................................................... 74
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................................................. 75
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006..................................................................... 75
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................................................... 75
Methodology ......................................................76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..................................................................... 76
Defence Industry......................... 76
City Terrorism Rating................. 77
Table: Methodology.................... 79
Sources ....................................... 80