Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2010

Uganda continues to face numerous internal and external security challenges, which will be brought into sharper relief by increasing tensions arising from presidential and parliamentary elections in 2011. In September 2009, demonstrators supporting the king of Buganda, Muwenda Mutebi II, in a land dispute with the central government clashed with police, leaving 21 people dead. The Bugandan kingdom has grown resentful at what it sees as government encroachment on its traditional lands and role and has become increasingly vocal in its demands for autonomy. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) has accused the Bugandan kingdom of tribalism and of being manipulated by opposition politicians. The government has been criticised for heavy-handedness in dealing with the unrest and has also been accused of creating a party militia in an attempt to intimidate opponents and rig the 2011 elections. The situation became even more convoluted towards the of end 2009 when several opposition parties refused to cooperate with the electoral commission, which is organising the 2011 election, accusing the commission of bias towards the NRM and raising the possibility of a boycott of the polls. In positive news for the region, at the end of 2009 the Ugandan army said it had successfully dislodged the militant Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and was pursuing its remnants in neighbouring countries.

The Ugandan forces said the LRA was now dwindling in numbers and resources and, in December 2009, the army claimed a major victory with the killing of LRA second-in-command Bok Abudema following clashes in the Central African Republic. However, even if the LRA is a spent force as the Ugandan army says, we believe that the government still faces severe problems rehabilitating the 1.2m refugees displaced by over two decades of insurgency. Also, LRA leader Joseph Kony has avoided capture, although he is reported to have contacted Kampala in October 2009 offering to negotiate a peace deal. Elsewhere, Uganda contributes 2,700 soldiers to the 5,000-strong African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which is supporting the interim Somali government against the country’s al-Shabaab Islamist insurgents. AMISOM involvement may have brought Uganda into a closer strategic relationship with the US, but it has also brought threats from al-Shabaab of a terrorist strike in Kampala. There have also been reports of Ugandan Muslims training and fighting with al-Shabaab, raising the possibility that these fighters will eventually bring terrorism to Uganda.

Uganda continues to face an unpredictable and complex security situation, particularly in light of upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in 2011. In September 2009, violent riots with political and ethnic overtones paralysed the country’s capital for several days, which does not bode for a smooth run-up to the 2011 polls. Opposition politicians also accused the ruling NRM of creating a party militia in an attempt to intimidate opponents and rig the elections. And while the LRA has now largely been driven from north Uganda, it still exists as a destabilising force in the region and the government still faces severe problems rehabilitating 1.2m refugees. Elsewhere, a major crackdown on violent cattle raids in eastern Uganda has resulted in more than 80 Karamojong fighters killed by the army in 2009, and a dispute with Kenya over an island in Lake Victoria in unresolved.

As many as 21 people were killed in several days of riots in Kampala and outlying districts in September 2009 after police barred Muwenda Mutebi II of Buganda from visiting a volatile town in the territory that he says is part of the kingdom. This longstanding land dispute between the government and Buganda, as well as complex legal relations with the other historical kingdoms, has not been settled, with Bagandans increasingly loud in their demand for autonomy. Reports suggest that the opposition is using such issues as a means for mobilising opinion against the government. Civil rights groups criticised the police for its heavy-handed response to the clashes. We believe that further civil disturbances and violent clashes are likely in the run-up to 2011 and there is also the possibility of an opposition boycott of the elections. Following the joint military operation launched against the LRA by Uganda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December 2008 and the brutal reprisals in north east Congo and South Sudan, LRA activity has continued at an intermittent level. The LRA formerly operated entirely in Uganda, terrorising the civilian population of the north for over 20 years, but shifted its base to north east Congo in 2005. Operation Lightning Thunder came after LRA leader Joseph Kony repeatedly failed to turn up to sign a comprehensive peace agreement negotiated in 2006-2008.

The attack destroyed LRA bases in Congo’s Garamba National Park and killed a number of rebels, but the majority of the force was scattered across the region, massacring civilians as they went. However, in late 2009 the Ugandan army said the LRA was now dwindling in numbers and resources and claimed a major victory with the killing of LRA second-in-command Bok Abudema following clashes in the Central African Republic (CAR). The Ugandan army has reportedly killed more than 80 Karamojong fighters since the start of 2009 as it aims to crack down on the tribesmen’s deadly raids. The crackdown came as the frequency of cattle raids was stepped up, with the rainy season helping to cover the raiders’ tracks. After failed voluntary disarmament exercises, the armed forces have been forcibly disarming the semi-nomadic group. The dispute between Kenya and Uganda over Migingo Island in Lake Victoria continued in 2009, as the joint boundary survey, launched in June 2009, quickly hit a stalemate over a procedural disagreement. The countries’ foreign ministers are yet to meet to resolve the dispute and reactivate the survey, the mandate for which has already expired.

Uganda lacks an established defence industry and its armed forces are almost entirely dependent upon procurement from overseas. This reliance has left the Ugandan armed forces underequipped and reliant on ageing equipment, with the government unable to acquire modern hardware due to economic limitations. This scenario is unlikely to change in the near future given Uganda’s relatively weak economy and the widening balance of trade deficit. Military spending has continued to increase in real terms but growth in expenditure is likely to stabilise at 3.5% a year over the coming years.