Uganda Defence and Security Report Q2 2009

Uganda defence expenditure is forecast to continue growing from 2007 levels of US$283 million. Military expenditure in Uganda has continued to increase in real terms in recent years. Defence spending in 1999 was US$ 170 million, whereas by 2007, it had reached some US$283 million. Defence expenditure is expected to keep growing over the forecast period, especially if Uganda continues major operations against entities such as the LRA and the ADF. Indeed, according to reports in the Daily Monitor, The Ugandan People’s Defence Force spent UGX390mn (US$0.18mn) per day on Operation Lightning Thunder (OLT). Meanwhile operations are being considered against the ADF in Eastern Congo. With the extra finding, the UPDF now confidently states that no armed rebellion can dispose the national government and it is this desire for security that has prompted the heavy investment in defence over the previous few years.

Forces from Uganda, South Sudan and the DRC launched a joint attack on rebels from Joseph Kony's LRA in the Garamba forest on the Sudan-DRC border in December 2008. In a strike supported by the US and western powers, the joint force destroyed the main rebel camp, after Kony again broke his promise in November to sign a final peace agreement to end two decades of fighting. However, BMI was sceptical as to how successful OLT would be, and with Ugandan troops now withdrawing from DR Congo, criticism is already growing about the operation.

According to Uganda’s Independent Newspaper, the political capital on offer in the event of a successful campaign was so great that the authorities were too heavily involved in the operation, which should have been left to the army commanders. Meanwhile, public expectation for the operation also ran high. The capture of Joseph Kony was expected and in that regard the operation was a failure. Efforts to force him to sign a peace accord also ended in failure, with Kony rejecting the deal again in April 2009. However, OLT did result in the capture or death of many LRA rebel leaders, thus disrupting the command structure of the organisation. The LRA is also reportedly no longer in a position to sustain a serious military offensive without support from other parties. Also, there are feelings that the offensive could result in closer political relations between Uganda and DR Congo.

As of the time of publishing no peace deal has been signed. In March 2009, the Ugandan government ruled out further peace talks with the LRA. The government has claimed that it is merely waiting for the LRA to sign and that further negotiations would not take place. However, Kony has refused to sign the deal claiming that it would disable his forces and lead him to stand trial by the International Criminal Court. Kony is also reported to be suspicious of President Yoweri Museveni’s motives and does not trust that he will carry out his side of the bargain.