Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q1 2009

Executive Summary ....................5
Vietnam Security SWOT.......... 6
Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT......................... 6
Vietnam Political SWOT......... 7
Vietnam Economics SWOT .................................. 7
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT................. 8
Political Overview........................9
Security Risk Ratings ...............11
BMI’s Security Ratings .............. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings................................ 11
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ........... 12
Composite............................. 12
Regional rank....................... 12
Trend....... 12
Danger rating....................... 12
Regional Security: South East Asia......................... 12
Trends And Developments ................................. 12
Inter-State Conflicts.............. 13
Internal Conflicts .................. 14
Vietnam’s Security Risk ............. 15
Physical Safety Risk Rating................................ 15
Terrorism Risk Rating........... 15
Conflict Risk Rating.............. 15
Security Overview .....................16
Internal Security Situation ................................. 16
Table: Actual And Attempted Piracy Attacks, 1996-2006 ............... 19
External Security Situation ................................ 21
Bilateral Relations................ 22
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..........24
Armed Forces ....................... 24
Weapons Of Mass Destruction........................... 26
Market Overview........................28
Industry Trends And Developments ................... 28
Arms Trade Overview........... 29
Procurement Trends And Developments............ 30
Industry Forecast Scenario .......32
Army And Military ................ 32
Table: Vietnam’s Armed Forces, 2005-2013 (‘000 personnel) ........ 32
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry............................... 33
Macroeconomic Forecast .................................. 34
Table: Vietnam – Macroeconomic Activity, 2006-2013 .................. 36
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data...............................37
Section 1: Population............ 37
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030...... 37
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ..... 38
Section 2: Education And Healthcare................ 38
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................ 38
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...................... 38
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............................. 39
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004........ 39
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........................... 39
BMI Forecast Modelling............40
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 40
Defence Industry................... 40
Sources ......... 41