Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q3 2010

Executive Summary ................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis .............. 7
Vietnam Security SWOT .............................................. 7
Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT ................................ 7
Vietnam Political SWOT ............................................. 8
Vietnam Economic SWOT ........................................... 8
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT........................ 9
Global Political Outlook ........................................................... 10
United States: Major Tests for Obama In 2010 ................ 10
Table: Election Timetable, 2010 ............................... 11
Western Europe: Fiscal Austerity Will Be Unpopular ................................................................... 13
Central And Eastern Europe: New Governments, Old Problems .................................................... 14
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges ............................ 15
Africa: The Election Conundrum .............................. 17
Asia: Broadly Stable, But 'Rogues' Need Vigilance ....................................................................... 18
Latin America: Political Risks Contained, But Watch Cartels ........................................................ 19
Wild Cards To Watch ................................................ 20
South East Asia Security Overview ......................................... 22
South East Asia In A Global Context ........................ 22
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security......................................................................... 22
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia ......................................................................... 25
Piracy In The Malacca Strait .................................... 27
The South China Sea/Spratly Islands ........................ 28
Other Regional Threats............................................. 29
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia .......................... 31
The Outlook For South East Asia .............................. 32
Security Risk Ratings .............................................................. 33
Security Ratings ............................................. 33
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .................. 33
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .......................................................... 34
Vietnam’s Security Risk ............................................ 34
City Terrorism Rating ............................................... 35
Table: Asia City Terrorism Index ................... 36
Political Overview ..................................................................... 37
Domestic Politics ...................................................... 37
Long-Term Political Outlook .................................... 38
Security Overview .................................................................... 42
Internal Security Situation ........................................ 42
External Security Situation ....................................... 46
Bilateral Relations .................................................... 47
Armed Forces And Government Spending ............................ 50
Armed Forces ........................................................... 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction .................................. 52
Market Overview ....................................................................... 54
Industry Trends And Developments .......................... 54
Arms Trade Overview ............................................... 55
Procurement Trends And Developments ................... 56
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................................................... 58
Army ......................................................................... 58
Table: Vietnam’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel) ....................................................... 58
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry ................. 59
Table: Vietnam’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014 ................................................... 60
Macroeconomic Forecast ......................................... 60
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ............... 61
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data .................... 63
Section 1: Population ................................................ 63
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ..................... 63
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .................... 64
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ....................... 64
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ................................... 64
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ............................. 64
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............... 65
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 ............... 65
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .......................................................................... 65
Methodology ..................................................................... 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............... 66
Defence Industry ....................................................... 66
City Terrorism Rating ............................................... 67
Table: Methodology .................................................. 69
Sources ..................................................................... 70