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Argentina Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Argentina |
Published |
28 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
51 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Argentinean electricity generation is forecast to increase by 24% during the period 2008 to 2018
The newly published Argentina Power Report forecasts that, by 2013, the country will account for 10.25% of Latin American regional power generation. The Latin America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,130 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.5% over the previous year.
We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,320TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 16.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 453TWh, accounting for 40.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 523TWh, implying 15.5% growth, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 39.6% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 75.3TWh, or 17.7% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 16.4% of thermal generation.
For Argentina, gas was in 2008 the dominant fuel, accounting for 53.6% of PED, followed by oil at 32.4%, hydro at 11.3%, nuclear at 2.2% and coal at 0.5%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 726mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.5% growth. Argentina’s 2008 market share of 11.78% is set to fall to 11.25% by the end of the forecast period. Argentina’s 7.2TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 8.0TWh by 2013, with its share of the regional nuclear market set to fall from 23.00% to 20.51% over the period.
Argentina is now ranked third in the updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, remaining behind Chile in spite of its market size and low energy import dependency, but overtaking Colombia. The power sector is competitive, with more progress towards privatisation than seen in most other countries.
The regulatory environment has deteriorated in the last few years, thanks to government intervention in energy pricing, but remains more attractive than in other parts of the region. Chile is now just one point ahead, and could be caught over the longer term.
The report is now forecasting Argentinean average annual real GDP growth of 0.62% between 2009 and 2013, with a decline of 1.00% forecast for 2009. The population is expected to expand from 39.9mn to 42.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 21%. Electricity consumption per capita is, however, expected to slip 1.3% during the forecast period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 118TWh in 2008 to 123TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical surplus rising from an estimated 7TWh in 2008 to 13TWh in 2013, assuming 1.9% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Argentinean electricity generation of 24.0%, which is one of the lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to 14.6% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 8.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to recover slightly from 9.3% in 2008-2013 to 9.6% in 2013-2018, representing 19.8% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated increase of 27.1% in hydropower use during 2008-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 19.0% between 2008 and 2018, with nuclear consumption set to increase by 66.7%.
More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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