| Market Research A to Z | Company Profiles A to Z | Register | Contact Us |
| +44 (0) 203 086 8600 Call us on |
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Bulgaria |
Published |
30 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
80 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Oil demand in Bulgaria is forecast to total 124,000b/d by 2013
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 2.20% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.41mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.15mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.63mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 12.91mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.37mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion.
In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to 7.51mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.74mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 592.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 663.4bcm targeted for 2013, representing 12.3% growth. Production of 754.6bcm in 2008 should reach 906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 161.9bcm in 2008 to 242.7bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2008 was 0.63%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.80%.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, the report is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Bulgarian real GDP is now forecast to fall by 5.3% in 2009, following 2008 growth of 5.8%. We are assuming 0.4% growth in 2010, followed by 2.4% in 2011, 3.7% in 2012, and 3.4% in 2013. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 124,000b/d by 2013. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.1bcm by the end of 2013, demand is heading for 5.3bcm, requiring imports of 4.2bcm Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 18.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 119,000b/d in 2008 to 136,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall over the short term from the estimated 2008 level of 0.3bcm to just 0.1bcm in 2009, before recovering to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2008 level of 3.0bcm to 5.6bcm at the end of the period. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bulgaria shares eighth place with Romania in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, poor production outlook, and limited competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset somewhat by reasonable country risk factors. Long-term scope exists for Bulgaria to overtake Romania. The country now holds 10th place in the Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.
Last Viewed
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009Company Financials: VeriSign, Inc.
Romania Agribusiness Report Q3 2009
Service Station Retailing in Norway
Kenya Freight Transport Report 2010
Become an Affiliate
Do you manage an industry specific website or blog? Are you looking to monetise your web traffic further? Are you a B2B website?
Why not offer your visitors industry specific strategic market reports and company profiles? Our Affiliate Program enables you to provide quality content on your website and to earn money from passing on visitors to our website. If a sale is made from your visitor, you earn commission (a fixed percentage of the price of a product).
Custom Research
Cannot find what you need? We can tailor a report for you. Complete the Custom Research Form and we will provide a quote.
News
Gas may be the future for Australia's energy export industry
Distributed Generation Market for Renewable Technologies to Hit USD 66.4 Billion by 2015
Depleting Water Reserves in China Driving Investment in Water Retention Technology
Market Insights
Currently there are no Market Insights in this sector.
