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Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Cameroon |
Published |
29 April 2010 |
Number of Pages |
78 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
File Format |
- |
The new Cameroon Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.02% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.76% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.57mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.63mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.08mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.77mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.64mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.83mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.83mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.07mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.75mn b/d by 2014.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 123bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 194bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 125bcm in 2009 to 191bcm by the end of the period. Cameroon makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, we are now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl, compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Cameroon's real GDP is assumed to have risen by 2.4% in 2009, compared with 3.4% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.2% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 32,550b/d in 2009 to 41,504b/d in 2014. State oil company Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government's share of oil output, and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 84,000b/d is expected to peak at 93,000b/d in 2013, before declining to 90,000b/d in 2014. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by around 2016.
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