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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Canada |
Published |
30 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
78 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Canadian oil production is forecast to total 4.00mn b/d by the end of 2018
The new Canada Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 10.48% of North American regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 34.25% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached 21.71mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 21.84mn b/d by 2013. North American regional oil production in 2008 averaged 9.97mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.95mn b/d by 2013. Net imports for the region should be 10.89mn b/d in 2013 – down from 11.74mn b/d in 2008.
In terms of natural gas, North America in 2008 consumed 757.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 792.4bcm targeted for 2013, representing 4.6% growth. Production of 757.4bcm in 2008 should ease to 726.0bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising to some 66.4bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 13.21%, while it contributed 23.13% to regional production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.62% of regional supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, the report is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The full year outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is now forecast to fall by 2.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.4% in 2008. We are assuming an average annual 1.6% growth in 2009-2013. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.21mn b/d in 2009, before rising to 2.29mn b/d by 2013. Oil output looks set to reach 3.75mn b/d by 2013, subject to oil sands development. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) says it expects oil sands production of 2.2mn b/d by 2015 under its best case scenario.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 23.53%, with output rising steadily from 3.24mn b/d in 2008 to 4.00mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period.
Given that oil consumption is forecast to decrease by 0.78%, exports should rise from 0.94mn b/d to 1.72mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the 2008 level of 175bcm to 168bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 100bcm to 112bcm, leaving net exports falling to 56bcm, largely to the US. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to the Country Risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 94.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.5 and the global average of 63.6. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 67.4, below the Developed Markets average of 70.0 and above the global average of 53.7.
Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor agreed to acquire for CAD19.6bn (US$15.9bn) in March 2009.
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