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China Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
China |
Published |
8 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
69 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The new China Power Report forecasts that, by 2014, the country will account for 54.89% of Asia Pacific regional power generation and will have a growing theoretical generation surplus. The Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,223 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of just 1.5% over the previous year thanks to reduced economic expansion. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,624TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 33.3%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. China’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 2,917TWh, or 50.75% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 56.44% of thermal generation.
For China in 2008, coal was the dominant fuel, accounting for 70.2% of PED, followed by oil at 18.8%, gas at 3.6%, hydro at 6.6% and nuclear with a 0.8% market share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,215mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 31.10% growth from the estimated 2009 level. China’s estimated 2009 market share of 52.86% is set to rise to 57.08% by 2014. China’s estimated 68TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 160TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market rising from 13.32% to 22.21% over the period.
China is now ranked equal second with Japan in the enlarged and updated Power Business Environment ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It should be able to pull away from Japan over the next few quarters and ultimately challenge Australia, which is currently six points ahead. China has a comfortable six-point lead over its nearest genuine rival, India. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry’s strength, but China seems destined to remain close to the head of the league table for the foreseeable future.
The report is now forecasting Chinese real GDP growth averaging 7.92% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 estimate being an increase of 8.10%. Population is expected to expand from 1.36bn to 1.41bn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase 86% and 36% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 3,588TWh in 2009 to 5,067TWh by the end of the forecast period. This should leave theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 17TWh in 2009 to 215TWh by 2014, assuming 7.5% annual growth in electricity output.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a 112.3% increase in Chinese electricity generation, which is the third-highest projected rate for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to growth of 44.9% in the 2014- 2019 period, down from 46.5% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 41.6% in 2009-2014 to 39.0%, representing 96.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 101% in hydro-power use during 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 110% between 2009 and 2019, with nuclear consumption expected to increase by 312%. More detail of the long-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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