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Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Croatia |
Published |
30 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
67 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Croatian oil imports are forecast to rise to 105,000b/d by the end of 2018
The latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.86% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing very little to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.41mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.15mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 5.63mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged 12.91mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.37mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to 7.51mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.74mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 592.7bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 663.4bcm targeted for 2013, representing 12.3% growth. Production of 754.6bcm in 2008 should reach 906.1cm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 161.9bcm in 2008 to 242.7bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was 0.80%, while its share of production is put at 0.47%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.94%, with the country accounting for 0.33% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018.
In 2009, the report is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Croatian real GDP is now forecast to decrease by 5.1% in 2009, compared with 2008 growth of 2.4%. We are assuming 1.1% growth in 2010, 3.3% in 2011, followed by 3.5% in 2012, and 3.6% in 2013. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching an estimated 105,000b/d by 2013. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 85,000b/d in 2008 to no more than 94,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Partly privatised state oil group INA is attempting to raise local production in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in crude production, from the estimated 2008 level of 16,000b/d to no more than 11,000b/d by 2013. We expect gas output to have peaked at 4bcm in 2008, before starting to decline. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.7bcm in 2008 to 6.2bcm by 2013, requiring imports of 3.2bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 85,000b/d to 105,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to have peaked at around 4.0bcm in 2008, before slipping to 2.6bcm by 2018. Import dependency therefore increases to 5.0bcm during the period. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Croatia shares 12th and last place in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating with Turkmenistan. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is limited longterm scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rival, with Turkmenistan much more likely to leave Croatia behind. The country is well in the lower half of the league table in the Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas for the country. Croatia takes 11th place ahead only of Slovakia and Slovenia.
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