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Czech Republic Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Czech Republic |
Published |
6 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
60 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The new Czech Republic Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.12% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2014, and will remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2009 was an estimated 2,534 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decline of 2.84% from the previous year’s level. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 3,005TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 18.61%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 was around 1,263TWh, accounting for 49.84% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,460TWh, implying 15.62% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 48.59% – in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The Czech Republic’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 48.2TWh, or 3.81% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 3.42% of thermal generation.
For the Czech Republic, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 40.9% of PED, followed by coal at 29.9%, nuclear energy at 15.5%, with oil having an 11.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,553mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 16.89% growth over the period. The Czech Republic’s estimated 2009 market share of 3.27% is set to ease to 3.24% by 2014. The Czech Republic in 2009 accounted for an estimated 7.75% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to 6.80% by 2014.
In the updated Business Environment matrix, the Czech Republic now ranks eighth out of the nine CEE states as a result of its limited market size, modest growth prospects, relatively high level of energy import dependence, moderate progress towards the use of renewables, and underwhelming privatisation trend. Country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but the country seems destined to remain near the bottom of the table for the foreseeable future.
The report forecasts that real Czech GDP growth will average 3.18% a year during 2010-2014, with a decline of 3.80% assumed in 2009. The population is expected to remain at around 10.4mn, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 35.5% and 7.2%, respectively, between 2009 and 2014. The country’s power consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 63.0TWh in 2009 to 67.5TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus capacity is expected to rise from an estimated 21.0TWh in 2009 to 26.2TWh in 2014, assuming 1.5% average annual growth in power generation. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Czech electricity generation of 20.74%, which is the third slowest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 8.25% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 11.53% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 15.58% in 2009-2014 to 9.32% in 2014-2019, representing an increase of 26.36% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 254.2% in hydro-power use during 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth, with nuclear usage up by 32.1%. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 1.23% between 2009 and 2019. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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