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France Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
France |
Published |
28 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
60 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Gas demand in France is forecast to rise to a peak of 45.4bcm in 2017
The latest France Oil & Gas Report from our forecasts that the country will account for 14.15% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a 0.24% contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption averaged an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.61mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.66mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.90mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 270bcm in 2009 should rise to 273bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 156bcm to some 200bcm by the end of the period. France’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 10.09%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.47%.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, we have assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level. French real GDP is forecast to have fallen by 2.2% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.4% in 2008. We are assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Oil consumption is set to stagnate in spite of increased economic activity, with demand of an estimated 1.89mn b/d in 2009 expected to rally to 1.93mn b/d by 2013/14. Crude oil imports are expected to have reached 1.92mn b/d by 2014, with domestic crude oil production falling from an estimated 18,000b/d to just 9,000b/d over the period. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than for oil, with new sources of supply being lined up by GdF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt, Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is likely to have reached 44.7bcm by 2014. Production is negligible, so imports could rise to 42.7bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in French oil and gas liquids consumption of 1.33%, with estimated 2009 demand of 1.89mn b/d rising slowly to a peak of 1.93mn b/d in 2013/14. By 2019, we are forecasting French consumption of 1.91mn b/d. Production is set to fall from around 18,000b/d to just 5,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 43.0bcm to a peak of 45.4bcm in 2017, based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of our 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to our Country Risk team, France’s long-term political risk score is 84.0, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.6, below the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and above the global average of 53.5. France has a fully privatised and competitive oil and gas industry. State holdings have been reduced greatly in electricity and gas suppliers EdF and GdF Suez. The upstream and downstream oil segments are privatised and deregulated, with considerable IOC involvement in refining and distribution, even though former state company Total has the greatest market share.
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