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France Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

852.71

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Electronic License

Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£852.71

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Market

Energy and Utilities

Report Type

Market Research

Country

France

Published

10 July 2012

Number of Pages

71

Report Delivery

Download

Delivery Lead Time

Immediate

Publisher

Business Monitor International

File Format

PDF

Reduced reliance on nuclear energy in France leaves opportunities for gas

French energy policy is subject to change following Francois Hollandes election victory and there have already been suggestions that the existing commitment to nuclear power will be diluted in favour of renewables. During his election campaign, Hollande pledged to close 24 of Frances 58 reactors and to reduce reliance on atomic power. This leaves the door open for gas to play a larger role.

Growth prospects are uncertain and the outlook for refiners and fuel distributors remains poor. The main trends and developments in the French oil & gas sector are:

- LyondellBasell has initiated a programme to mothball its Berre refinery in south-eastern France, reports Reuters, citing a company spokesperson. The refinery has a capacity of 105,000 barrels per day (b/d). Three companies have apparently shown interest in buying the French Petit- Couronne refinery, formerly owned by Petroplus, with the deadline having been extended until the end of May 2012. The plant was put under judicial protection in January 2012.

- Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than oil demand, with new sources of supply being lined up by GdF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt in addition to those already signed with Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is forecast to reach 51.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2016, climbing further to 56.8bcm by 2021, subject to revisions in French energy policy. Gas production is negligible, meaning that imports could rise significantly to a high of around 56.3bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period, in 2021.

- In May 2011, EdF and Total confirmed that they would proceed with the US$2.2bn Nord-Pasde- Calais Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project at Dunkirk, which is expected to add between 10bcm and 13bcm of import capacity when it comes onstream. There are also plans to expand capacity at the Montoir-de-Bretagne terminal to 16.5bcm by 2014.

- Thanks to improved energy efficiency and efforts to reduce oil dependency, oil demand is now expected to remain mostly flat over our 10-year forecast period to 2021. We forecast oil consumption to reach 1.89mn b/d by 2016, edging higher to just over 2.00mn b/d in 2021. Crude oil imports are expected to reach almost 1.95mn b/d in 2021.

- Crude oil imports will cost an estimated US$70.8bn in 2012, falling to US$66.1bn in 2016. With virtually no domestic gas supply, we expect French gas imports of 51.8bcm in 2016, costing US$25.2bn. Combined crude oil and gas imports are expected to cost France US$91.3bn by 2016. At the time of writing, we forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$99.00 and US$97.00/bbl, respectively.

The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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Select License Type

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Electronic License

An electronic version (mostly PDF, but can be Excel or PPT), which is either available for immediate download or will be sent via email by the Publisher of the report. The licencing for an electronic version is for use by the purchaser ONLY.

£852.71

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