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Greece Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Greece |
Published |
28 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
61 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Greece will account for 3.45% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014
The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from our forecasts that the country will account for 3.45% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption averaged an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.61mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001 and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.66mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.90mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 270bcm in 2009 should rise to 273bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 156bcm to some 200bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.96%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.21%.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, we have assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level. Greek real GDP is forecast to have fallen by 0.6% in 2009, compared with growth of 2.9% in 2008. We are assuming 1.9% average annual growth in 2010-2014. While there is still some limited scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country’s oil consumption is rising relatively fast (beyond 2009 averaging 2.0% per annum) and is expected to reach 470,000b/d in 2014. By 2014, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 5.7bcm, all of which will be imported. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Greek oil and gas liquids consumption of 17.78%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 430,000b/d in 2009 to 506,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to rise to a potential peak of 5,000b/d in 2011/12, before easing to 2,000b/d by 2019. Gas demand should rise from the 2009 level of 4.1bcm to 7.3bcm by 2019, relying on pipeline and LNG imports. Details of our 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to our Country Risk team, Greece’s long-term political risk score is 82.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 60.6, below the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and above the global average of 53.5. Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring participation by domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP), but also features international oil company (IOC) involvement. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state influenced.
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