Green Energy in Emerging Economies: Renewable investment, capacity growth, and future outlook

Table of Contents
Green Energy in Emerging Economies
Executive summary 12
Market outlook 12
China 13
India 14
Brazil 15
Russia 16
Other countries 17
Future outlook 18
Chapter 1 Market outlook 22
Overview of the electricity sector 22
Overview of renewable energy 26
Wind power 29
Solar power 30
Biopower 31
Hydropower 32
Geothermal 33
Chapter 2 China 36
Summary 36
Introduction 37
China’s current energy picture 37
China’s energy policy framework 39
Wind power 42
Key players 44
Case study – China High Speed Transmission (CHST) 45
Drivers of wind power 46
Resistors of wind power 47
Solar power 47
Key players 49
Drivers of solar power 50
Resistors of solar power 51
Biopower 51
Key players 53
Drivers of biopower 54
Resistors of biopower 54
Hydropower 54
Small hydropower 55
Large hydropower 55
Key players 56
Drivers of hydropower 56
Resistors of hydropower 57
Geothermal 57
Conclusions 57
Chapter 3 India 60
Overview 61
India’s energy demand growth and the climate change challenge 61
India’s energy policies 63
India’s energy supply mix 64
Wind power 66
Key players 68
Case study – new incentives 69
Drivers of wind power 70
Resistors of wind power 71
Solar power 71
Key players 74
Drivers of solar power 75
Resistors of solar power 75
Biopower 76
Key players 77
Drivers to biopower 78
Resistors to biopower 78
Geothermal 78
Hydropower 79
Small hydropower 81
Key players 81
Drivers of small hydropower 81
Resistors of small hydropower 82
Large hydropower 82
Key players 84
Drivers of hydropower 85
Resistors of hydropower 85
Conclusions 86
Chapter 4 Brazil 88
Overview 89
Wind power 93
Key players 96
Drivers of wind power 97
Resistors of wind power 97
Solar power 97
Drivers of solar power 98
Resistors of solar power 99
Biopower 99
Case study – sugar cane bagasse 100
Key players 101
Drivers of biopower 102
Resistors of biopower 102
Hydropower 103
Small hydropower 103
Key players 104
Drivers of hydropower 104
Resistors of hydropower 105
Geothermal 105
Conclusions 105
Chapter 5 Russia 108
Overview 108
Russia, climate change and energy policy 110
Russia’s energy mix and potential for renewables 111
Wind power 113
Key players 114
Drivers of wind power 115
Resistors of wind power 115
Solar power 116
Case study – solar industry growth in 2009 116
Drivers of solar power 118
Resistors of solar power 118
Biopower 118
Drivers of biopower 119
Resistors of biopower 119
Hydropower 119
Key players 121
Drivers of hydropower 122
Resistors of hydropower 122
Geothermal 122
Conclusions 123
Chapter 6 Other countries 126
Turkey 127
Introduction 127
Wind power 131
Solar power 132
Biopower 132
Hydropower 132
Geothermal 133
Indonesia 133
Wind power 136
Solar power 136
Biopower 137
Hydropower 137
Geothermal 138
Poland 139
Wind power 140
Solar power 141
Biopower 141
Hydropower 142
Geothermal 142
Czech Republic 142
Wind power 144
Solar power 144
Case study – Czech solar industry growth 144
Biopower 146
Hydropower 146
Geothermal power 147
Hungary 147
Wind power 148
Solar power 149
Biopower 149
Hydropower 149
Geothermal 150
South Africa 150
Chapter 7 Future outlook 154
Outlook for energy consumption and power generation 155
CO2 emissions 159
Wind power 160
Solar power 162
Biopower 163
Hydropower 164
Geothermal 166
Conclusions 166
Glossary 168
Index 171
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Global growth in net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2000–2008 24
Figure 1.2: Total renewable power installed capacity (m kW), 2000 – 2007 28
Figure 2.3: China, electricity production market share (%), 2006 38
Figure 2.4: Wind power installation capacity (MW), 2008 42
Figure 2.5: Leading country producers of PV cells (GW), 2008 49
Figure 2.6: Biomass generation capacity (MW), 2005–2008 52
Figure 2.7: Installed capacity of biomass power technologies (MW), 2008 53
Figure 3.8: Estimated growth in Indian renewable energy capacity of power generation (MW), 2009-2012 65
Figure 3.9: India, wind power capacity by state (MW), 2008 68
Figure 3.10: Indian solar resources 72
Figure 3.11: India solar power projections (2012–2030), GW 74
Figure 3.12: India's potential hydropower potential by region (MW), 2007 80
Figure 3.13: India hydropower capacity additions (MW), 2009-2012 84
Figure 4.14: Brazil, net electricity consumption growth (bn kWh), 2000–2007 90
Figure 4.15: Brazil, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 93
Figure 4.16: Brazil wind power capacity (MW), 2002–2008 94
Figure 5.17: Russia, primary energy consumption (Mtoe), 2008 109
Figure 5.18: Total power generation capacity in Russia (MW), 2007 112
Figure 5.19: Russia, wind power capacity projected expansion (MW), 2010–2020 114
Figure 6.20: Turkey, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 128
Figure 6.21: Wind energy feed-in prices (€ per MWh), 2008 130
Figure 6.22: Indonesia, installed power generation capacity (GW), 2008 134
Figure 6.23: Indonesia, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 135
Figure 6.24: Poland, electricity production from wind power (GWh), 2004 –2008 141
Figure 6.25: Czech Republic, installed capacity (GWh), 2008 143
Figure 6.26: Czech Republic, installed solar capacity (MW), Jan 2008 – Nov 2009 146
Figure 6.27: Hungary, installed capacity (MW), 2008 148
Figure 7.28: Total primary energy consumption BRIC region (QBtu), 1990 – 2030 159
Figure 7.29: Wind power capacity projections, China and India (MW), 2010–2030 161
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Global growth in net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2000–2008 23
Table 1.2: Total renewable power installed capacity (m kW), 2000 – 2007 28
Table 1.3: Wind power capacity, top five countries (MW), 2008 29
Table 1.4: Global solar power capacity (GW), 2008 30
Table 2.5: China, electricity production market share (%), 2006 38
Table 2.6: Wind power installation capacity (MW), 2008 42
Table 2.7: Leading country producers of PV cells (GW), 2008 48
Table 2.8: Biomass generation capacity (MW), 2005-2008 52
Table 2.9: Installed capacity of biomass power technologies (MW), 2008 53
Table 3.10: Estimated growth in Indian renewable energy capacity (MW), 2009-2012 65
Table 3.11: India, wind power capacity by state, 2008 67
Table 3.12: India solar power projections (GW), 2012-2030 73
Table 3.13: Power generation capacity of biopower in India (MW), October 2009 76
Table 3.14: India's hydropower potential by region (MW), 2007 80
Table 3.15: India hydropower capacity additions (MW), 2009-2012 83
Table 4.16: Brazil, net electricity consumption (bn kWh), 2000-2007 89
Table 4.17: Projections of installed capacity for renewable energy sources in Brazil (MW), 2015– 2030 92
Table 4.18: Brazil, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 93
Table 4.19: Brazil, wind power capacity (MW), 2002-2008 94
Table 4.20: Brazil biopower capacity (MW), 2009–2019 101
Table 5.21: Russia, primary energy consumption (Mtoe), 2008 109
Table 5.22: Total power generation capacity in Russia (MW), 2007 111
Table 5.23: Russia, wind power capacity projected expansion (MW), 2010-2020 113
Table 6.24: Turkey, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 127
Table 6.25: Wind energy feed-in prices (€ per MWh), 2008 130
Table 6.26: Indonesia, installed power generation capacity (GW), 2008 134
Table 6.27: Indonesia, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 135
Table 6.28: Poland, electricity production from wind power (GWh), 2004-2008 140
Table 6.29: Czech Republic, installed capacity (GW), 2007 143
Table 6.30: Czech Republic, installed solar capacity (MW), Jan 2008– Nov 2009 145
Table 6.31: Hungary, installed capacity (GW), 2008 147
Table 6.32: South Africa: renewable energy feed-in tariffs (ZAR/kWh), March 2009 151
Table 7.33: World energy consumption (QBtu), 156
Table 7.34: Global projections of net electricity generation by energy source (trn kWh), 2010– 2030 157
Table 7.35: Total primary energy consumption BRIC region (QBtu), 1990 -2030 158
Table 7.36: Global energy related CO2 emissions forecasts (bn metric tonnes) 160
Table 7.37: Wind power capacity projections, China and India (MW), 2010-2030 161
Table 7.38: Global projections of renewable electricity generation by source (bn kWh), 2010–2030 165