Hungary Petrochemicals Report Q2 2010

Executive Summary .......5
SWOT Analysis........6
Hungarian Petrochemicals Sector SWOT.............. 6
Hungary Political SWOT.................. 6
Hungary Economic SWOT....................... 7
Hungary Business Environment SWOT.................. 7
Global Market Overview........8
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 (‘000 tonnes capacity) ............ 8
Table: World Petrochemicals Capacities, 2009 (‘000 tpa)....... 12
Global Oil Products Price Outlook............... 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl).................... 18
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)............ 19
Europe Overview..........21
Regulation...... 21
Table: Key Elements Of REACH................... 22
Production ............ 23
Hungary Market Overview.....................24
Table: Hungary’s TVK Cracker Capacity, 2006-2013 (‘000 tpa)........................ 25
Petrochemicals Business Environment..............26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings ............... 26
Limits Of Potential Returns.................... 26
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns ............. 27
Industry Trends And Developments ...................29
Upstream Developments ........................ 29
Acquisitions .......... 29
MOL’s Strategy..... 33
Financial Results ......... 35
Industry Forecast Scenario ....................36
Table: Hungary’s Petrochemical Industry, 2006-2014 (‘000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)...... 36
Table: MOL’s Petrochemical Production, 2009 (‘000 tonnes) ..................... 38
Table: MOL’s External Petrochemical Sales, 2009 (‘000 tonnes) ....................... 38
Macroeconomic Outlook........................ 38
Table: Hungary – Economic Activity ............ 40
Company Monitor.........42
BorsodChem (BC)........ 42
Magyar Olaj-és Gázipari (MOL) .................. 45
Tiszai Vegyi Kombinat (TVK) ................ 49
Country Snapshot: Hungary Demographic Data .............51
Section 1: Population... 51
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............... 51
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .............. 52
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.................. 52
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ................ 52
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030................. 52
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ......... 53
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006.......... 53
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 53
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012.......... 54
BMI Methodology .........55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 55
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry ............. 55
Cross Checks ........ 56
Business Environment Ratings............... 57
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale.................... 57
Weighting....... 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .................... 58