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Hungary Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Hungary |
Published |
26 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
61 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Hungarian electricity generation is forecast to increase by 22% during the period 2008 to 2018
BMI forecasts that Hungarian power generation will account for 1.52% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional output by 2013, with the country remaining a net importer of electricity from neighbouring states during this time. CEE power generation in 2008 was 2,610 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.35% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,884TWh by 2013, representing an increase of 10.51%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 was around 1,342TWh, accounting for 51.42% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,384TWh, implying 3.11% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 47.99% – in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Hungary’s thermal generation in 2008 was 25.0TWh, or 1.86% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.00% of thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Hungary, accounting for 43.8% of primary energy demand (PED). Gas is followed by oil at 31.3%, nuclear at 13.6% and coal with an 11.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 11.84% growth over the period. Hungary’s 2008 market share of 1.82% is set to ease to 1.77% by 2013. Hungary’s 14.8TWh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 15.8TWh by 2013, with its share of the CEE nuclear market falling from 4.19% to 3.49%.
Hungary is now ranked seventh in the updated Power Business Environment rating, ahead only of Ukraine and Slovakia, thanks to its limited market size, modest growth prospects, high level of energy import dependence, and limited progress towards the use of renewables. Country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but Hungary seems destined to jockey for position near the foot of the table for the foreseeable future.
The report is now forecasting Hungarian real GDP growth to average 0.63% per annum between 2009 and 2013, although the 2009 forecast is for a decline of 6.40%. The country’s population is expected to contract from 10.0mn to 9.9mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 0.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Hungary’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 38.1TWh in 2008 to 39.9TWh by the end of the forecast period.
Distribution losses in excess of 4.0TWh require continuing net imports, even assuming 1.56% annual growth in power generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian electricity generation of 22.28%, which is one of the slowest projected growth rates for the CEE region. This equates to 11.49% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 9.67% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 8.63% in 2008-2013 to 12.92%, representing 22.66% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 250% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a key element of generation growth, with nuclear usage up by 28%. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by less than 17% between 2008 and 2018. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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