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Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Japan |
Published |
1 September 2010 |
Number of Pages |
45 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
File Format |
- |
The latest Japan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 13.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing significantly to regional supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Japans share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 17.88%, while it provides no meaningful share of production. By 2014, it is expected to be consuming 15.28% of the regions gas.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Japanese real GDP is assumed by BMI to increase by 1.9% in 2010, and we foresee average annual growth of 1.3% in 2010-2014. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2010 and 2014, implying demand of 4.10mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should be consuming 96bcm of gas by 2014, all of which will be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Japanese oil consumption of 7.43%, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.05mn b/d by 2019. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 88.7bcm in 2010 to 100.4bcm by 2019. All of Japans gas will continue to be imported in the form of LNG. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found to the rear of this report.
Japan now holds eighth place, behind Malaysia, in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) league table.
The country ranks 11th, behind Thailand, in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which counter the lack of reserves and output growth potential. Japan now shares fourth place with Singapore in BMIs downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, increasing gas demand and the established modern refining capability. However, it is held back by a high level of retail site intensity and a poor oil demand growth outlook.
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