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Kuwait Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Kuwait |
Published |
28 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
48 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Kuwait’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 52TWh
The new Kuwait Power Report forecasts that by 2013 the country will account for 4.21% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation. The MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kuwait’s thermal generation in 2008 was around 52TWh, or 4.58% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 4.52% of thermal generation.
For Kuwait, in 2008 oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for 57.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 43.0%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Kuwait’s 2008 market share of 3.64% is set to climb to 4.04% by 2013.
Kuwait shares last place with Algeria in the updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its modest market size, state control of the power sector and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation.
The regulatory environment is unattractive. Kuwait is 14 points behind Saudi Arabia, so is unlikely to challenge the larger Gulf state over the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 1.80% per annum between 2009 and 2013, with the 2009 estimate being a decline of 2.20%. Population is expected to expand from 3.31mn to 3.40mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to rise by 6% and power consumption per capita expected to increase by 11% from an already high base. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 45.3TWh in 2008 to 51.9TWh by the end of the forecast period, resulting in a broadly balanced market that, at times of peak demand, will struggle to provide adequate supply without imports – assuming 4.9% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018 we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti electricity generation of 63.5%, which is among the highest in the MEA region. This equates to 29.5% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 26.3% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 33.8% in 2008-2013 to 36.4%, representing 82.4% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 63.5% between 2008 and 2018.
More details of the longer-term the power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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