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Peru Power Report Q3 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Peru |
Published |
21 July 2010 |
Number of Pages |
50 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The newly published Peru Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.16% of Latin American regional power generation by 2014, with supply and demand broadly in balance. The Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a 2010- 2014 increase of 12.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear power. Peru’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 12.9TWh, or 3.14% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 4.54% of thermal generation.
For Peru, in 2009 oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 47.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 27.3%, gas at 21.6% and coal at 3.2%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010- 2014. Peru’s estimated 2009 market share of 2.63% is set to ease to 2.60% by 2014.
Peru is ranked fifth, comfortably ahead of Mexico, in the updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress, competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are largely supportive, but the four-point lead held by Argentina means that Peru may struggle over the near term to move higher up the rankings.
We are forecasting Peruvian average annual real GDP growth of 4.94% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 5.90% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 29.7mn to 32.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 42% and 14%, respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 30TWh in 2009 to 38TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a broadly balanced power market, assuming average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation of 4.6%.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Peruvian electricity generation of 42.3%, which is mid-range for the Latin America region. This equates to 21.7% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 19.5% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 15.3% in 2010-2014 to 20.5% in 2014-2019, representing 38.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 10% in hydro-power use during 2010- 2019 is one element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 87% between 2010 and 2019 as gas usage increases. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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