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Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Philippines |
Published |
26 August 2010 |
Number of Pages |
90 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
File Format |
- |
The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.02% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.75% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. The Philippines estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 0.89%, while its share of production was 1.06%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.85%, with the country accounting for 0.96% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
The Philippines real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI to be 4.9%, with an average annual increase of 4.6% expected in 2010-2014. There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 67,000b/d by 2014, with the country pumping an estimated 60,000b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2014, implying end-period demand of 307,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore be about 241,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2010 to 5.3bcm by 2014, with imports required by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Philippines oil production of 22.62%, with crude volumes peaking at 70,000b/d in 2012/2013 before falling steadily to 51,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 29.20%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 349,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from around 4.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 8.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 105%, this will require up to 1.0bcm of imports. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
The Philippines holds sixth place in BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks eighth, just behind Pakistan, in BMIs updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than-average output growth outlook. The Philippines also ranks eighth, between Thailand and Indonesia, in our downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its modest refinery capacity expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity.
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