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Qatar Power Report Q1 2010
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Qatar |
Published |
19 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
51 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Qatari electricity generation is forecast to increase by 149.9% between 2009 and 2019
In this report, we forecast that Qatar will account for 2.10% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a modest but growing generation surplus throughout the period. Our MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 31.3% between 2009 and the end of the period.
Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 21.3TWh, or 1.84% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.29% of thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn toe by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. Qatar’s estimated 2009 market share of 3.19% is set to rise to 4.03% by 2014.
Qatar is now ranked first ahead of the UAE in our updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the potential to keep the UAE at bay for the foreseeable future.
We forecast that real GDP growth will average 8.44% a year in 2010-2014, with 2009 estimated at 7.70%. The population is expected to expand from 1.60mn to 1.80mn over the period. GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 75% during 2009-2014, and electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by 37%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 20TWh in 2009 to almost 31TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a growing generation surplus that should provide the basis for exports to other Gulf states – assuming 10% average annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 149.9%, which is the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 52.4% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 64.0% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 58.2% in 2009-2014 to 49.7%, representing 136.8% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 149.9% between 2009 and 2019. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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