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Qatar Power Report Q4 2009
Market |
Energy and Utilities |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Qatar |
Published |
30 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
52 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Qatar’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 18.0TWh in 2008 to 25.8TWh by the end of 2013
In this report, it is forecasted that Qatar will account for 1.97% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013, having a growing generation surplus throughout the period. The MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermal generation in 2008 was 19.7TWh, or 1.74% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.12% of thermal generation.
For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Qatar’s 2008 market share of 3.06% is set to ease to 3.02% by 2013.
Qatar is now ranked third behind the UAE in the updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the longer-term potential to challenge the UAE for second place.
The report forecasts real GDP growth averaging 7.82% a year in 2009-2013, with the 2009 estimate being 5.60%. The population is expected to expand from 1.45mn to 1.67mn over the period. GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 19% during 2008-13, and electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by 25%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 18.0TWh in 2008 to 25.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a growing generation surplus that should provide the basis for exports to other Gulf states – assuming 9.9% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 112.3%, which is one of the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 35.0% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 56.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 19.1% in 2008-2013 to 22.0%, representing 45.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 112.3% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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